Denton's population growth has many local officials looking at their budgets and seeing how they can provide services to residents.
According to city estimates, Denton's population could grow to more than 200,000 by 2030. DENTON CENSUS
2000
80,537
2010
113,383
PROJECTED ESTIMATES
2015
122,302
2020
147,825
2030
207,334
SOURCE: Economic and Demographic Projections for the City of Denton: An Update, April 2011
In a report prepared for the city by the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas, center director Terry Clower and adjunct professor Paul Hendershot projected Denton would continue to have significant population growth.
Even though the city has been impacted by the national recession and the financial sector meltdown, it has continued to attract new businesses and residents, the report stated.
"Recent market conditions have, in some respects, just hit the pause button on Denton's growth," Clower and Hendershot wrote in the April report, titled Economic and Demographic Projections for the City of Denton: An Update.
They projected a population of 207,334 for Denton by 2030.
According to the 2010 census, Denton's population grew by 40.8 percent since 2000, to 113,383.
The North Central Texas Council of Governments offered a more conservative estimate. Its April forecast projected Denton's population reaching 190,719 by 2030.
Erica Sullivan, economic development analyst for the city, said Denton's growth is due to its quality of life.
"Some of these include access to education, medical availability, recreational opportunities and the music and arts atmosphere that is unique to Denton," she said. "The quality of life of a community is also a significant factor considered in business relocation."
In the past couple of years, the city has attracted major companies such as Aldi Inc., a discount grocer, and Schlumberger Ltd., an international oil field service firm.
Denton has plenty of open space to develop, Sullivan said.
Karen Dickson, vice president of economic development for the Denton Chamber of Commerce, said the city has continued its business growth because of economic successes.
"In the past six to nine months, we had a lot of inquiries. It has picked up," Dickson said about businesses looking for space in the area.
She said the inquiries have focused on the industrial sector, which includes light manufacturing and some distribution.
A Target distribution center near Denton Airport is under construction and expected to open next year.
"The projects that we have been working are finally breaking ground," Dickson said.
Bob Bland, professor and chairman of UNT's department of public administration, said the population growth estimates have many officials wondering what they can do to sustain it.
"Growth is received as a positive by the local government, city and county," Bland said. "It increases revenue, its public tax base and sales tax base. The impact on revenues is quicker than it is on expenditures."
Bland said local officials know that in the short term, population growth provides revenue to the city.
"They occupy new homes and they begin making purchases, and that has an impact on the sales tax base," Bland said.
But over time, local governments also have to plan for the needs of the new residents, and that includes providing employment opportunities, schools, libraries and other services.
"The recession has been painful on people - we still have people looking for jobs, unemployed or underemployed - but we are better off in this region for some reason," Bland said. "We were just very fortunate."
He said he was not sure if it was due to luck or because city and county leaders knew how to solve collective issues.
"We have a common-sense approach to solving our collective problems," Bland said. "We have a pragmatic approach that has paid off over time. We don't do too much, but we also don't ignore them."
County growth
According to the census, Denton County grew by 53 percent since 2000 to 662,614 people. It is one of four counties among the state's 10 most populous, with Dallas second, Tarrant third, Collin seventh and Denton ninth.
County Judge Mary Horn said she foresees the most growth in Frisco and Little Elm.
Frisco is growing by leaps and bounds, she said. While the majority of the city is in Collin County, that county is built out to the east, which would push more growth into Denton County's section.
To attract business along with population growth, Horn said the county's low tax rate will be a selling point.
"That is a big attraction to people that want to move to an area to do business. That's always been a priority to me and other members of the court," she said.
The low tax rate is one reason she is not in favor of tax abatements for businesses.
"If you have an area with an educated workforce, low tax rate, all those things together make your area attractive," she said. "When you're in demand, you don't have to give it away."
Horn said that with population growth, mobility is always a big concern.
"If you don't have the ability for a business to market itself, it stymies growth," she said. "Mobility, road construction and maintenance always has to be a concern and a priority."
Staff Writer Bj Lewis and The Dallas Morning News contributed to this report.
KARINA RAMÍREZ can be reached at 940-566-6878. Her e-mail address is kramirez@dentonrc.com .
