Operators of much of the state's power grid see little risk of rolling outages this winter.
However, an unexpected delay in commissioning a new coal plant near Waco increases the risk of outages next summer.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, released a pair of reports Thursday detailing projections for peak demand for both the upcoming season and the next 10 years. The winter projection came from new seasonal assessments the agency now performs.
ERCOT oversees the grid for about 85 percent of the state's electricity, and serves about 23 million people in the central part of the state.
Trip Doggett, chief executive officer of ERCOT, told reporters in a news conference Thursday afternoon that the agency had just learned that the Sandy Creek coal plant, with 925 megawatts of generation, would not be available at the beginning of the year as planned.
Problems during the startup of the plant damaged equipment that takes a long time to replace, Doggett said. The start date has been pushed to the spring of 2013.
One megawatt of electricity powers about 500 Texas homes under average conditions.
The Sandy Creek plant would have replaced generation from two older coal-fired power plants that are being mothballed because they cannot operate without breaking the laws governing cross-state air pollution, Doggett said.
If next summer is a repeat of last summer, with extreme heat and drought, the likelihood of rolling outages in August has increased without the additional capacity of that new power plant, Doggett said.
ERCOT is working on other short-term solutions, including more flexible ways to allow manufacturers to participate in programs that reduce demand during peak hours during the summer, he said.
For now, the state has enough capacity for the winter. Only another historically high number of plant outages combined with widespread low temperatures could trigger the kind of outages seen on Feb. 2, he said.
"The risk of that combination is very low," Doggett said.
PEGGY HEINKEL-WOLFE can be reached at 940-566-6881. Her e-mail address is pheinkel-wolfe@dentonrc.com.
