[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Dallas Mavericks need a strong finish before All-Star break
08:57 PM CST on Thursday, February 4, 2010
I cannot stress how important the final three games before the All-Star break are for the Mavericks.
The Mavericks are 31-18, which is good, but only 9-9 since Dec. 31, which is bad.
If they can scrounge out wins against Minnesota on Friday at home and at Golden State on Monday, the Mavericks can go into the pre-All-Star finale at Denver next Tuesday playing with house money. They've already won once there. And losing at Denver is no shame.
But first things first. The Mavericks in no way can afford a silly slip-up against a team like Minnesota.
And admit it, you know they are capable of such a blunder.
Isn't that what confounds you about them? If they played all the time like they did in a strong November, trade rumors would be nothing more than whispers, with little or no chance of coming true.
Now? The Mavericks are neck-deep into everything going on around the league. It doesn't mean they'll do anything. But the antenna is up.
Q: In light of the recent losing streak, do you think the brass is rethinking this year's team? It just doesn't look like this team of veterans can keep up with the up-and-coming Grizzlies, Thunder or Nuggets. Why keep it intact when we all know it won't get past the second round of the playoffs?
Thanh T.
SEFKO: I like the way you called this a "team of veterans" and not "old."
Every team in the league is going to have a three-game losing streak at some point over the 82-game grind. If they don't, they will be the No. 1 seed in their conference.
It sounds good to say the Mavericks need another player. But unless you're willing to pair Roddy Beaubois with Josh Howard or Erick Dampier – and take on a monster contract in return – I just don't see how they are going to get a major piece of the puzzle before the trade deadline.
We've seen this team look pretty good at times. And pretty bad at other times. If you sit tight and show patience now, you might be a major player in the summer for a marquee free agent.
Yes, that's betting on the run, and that's always risky. But is the alternative right now any more palatable?
Q: Dirk and Jet have been shut down in the fourth quarter in the recent losses against the Suns and the Jazz. I wonder if this is a result of Jet being a starter and Dirk's heavy playing time. Obviously, Jet is not as rested being a starter and logging more minutes earlier. Dirk seems to get less rest. Any chance both run out of gas in the fourth?
Alan S.
SEFKO: Excellent point. Even Dirk has mentioned that he's been logging a lot of minutes over the last month. He's up over 38 minutes per game, putting him well inside the top-20 iron men in the league.
Don't think it really applies to Terry. He's got the sort of motor that never seems to idle or do anything other than full speed ahead.
But in Dirk's case, if you watch closely, there are times when he really seems to be fatigued. And it's only going to get worse as the season grinds along.
I'm not worried about him in the playoffs. By then, there is plenty of rest time. But the last 30 games of the season are going to be extremely taxing on him, especially since it's unlikely the Mavericks will get to a point where they have anything clinched and can give their heavy lifters some rest.
Q: Josh seems a bit off. Is it because he's missed so much time and isn't in a groove yet? Is he still hurt? Or is he just not a two-guard, and we have too much depth at forward to use him there?
Susan Z.
SEFKO: I've been waiting on this one like D-Moore waits on the sweater sale at Foley's.
It can now be said with certainty that Josh Howard is not a shooting guard. It just didn't work.
It doesn't mean he's not still a good player who can make a huge difference for this team. He absolutely must do that at small forward. And believe it or not, the minutes are there.
Shawn Marion is the starter at small forward. But when Dirk Nowitzki goes out, Marion slides to power forward, and Howard eats up some minutes at small forward while Nowitzki is out.
When Nowitzki comes back, Marion sits.
That, potentially, gives Howard 10 to 12 consecutive minutes in the first half.
Then the pattern is repeated in the second half. And if Howard is rolling as he was Wednesday against Golden State, Carlisle will stick with him.
The rotation remains fluid. But it worked perfectly against the Warriors.
Q: Do you see Roddy or J.J. being ready to step into Kidd's shoes by the time Kidd retires? If so, which is a better candidate?
Susan Z.
SEFKO: Your first question was so good, I gave you another one, SZ.
The game plan for the future is to groom Beaubois to be the point guard. But as with everything that involves the future and the Mavericks, it's a tentative plan.
This team lives for the moment. That's why they have a starting lineup with five guys over the age of 30. These are the kind of players that, theoretically, know how to win.
J.J. Barea is one of two things. He's either a great backup point guard on a good or great team. Or he's a starting point guard on a so-so or bad team. He's learning that as his role increases on this team, he's getting more and more responsibilities, and when he has a stinko game like at Utah earlier this week, it has a major negative impact.
That said, he's been good a lot more than he's been bad this season.
Q: A lot of people talk about the contracts of Erick Dampier and Josh Howard. What about Jason Terry's deal? Could a scenario like this be possible: LeBron James informs Cleveland he won't re-sign and gives Cavs management a list of teams he'll accept a sign-and-trade to, and Dallas is on the list?
The Mavs give them Howard and Terry, plus a draft pick and pay LeBron Josh's and Jet's money. They turn around and re-sign Dampier for two or three years at the mid-level. Dallas gets LeBron, stays big and lowers the payroll, and Cleveland gets an expiring contract and legitimate talent in return. I know you get a million of these concoctions, but I thought I'd throw mine in the hat.
John, Clearwater
SEFKO: I actually like the way you're thinking, but if Cleveland loses LeBron, it doesn't matter who they get in return. They will be in major rebuilding mode.
So why would they take on Jet's long-term contract knowing that he's not a piece of their future?
I'm certain Cleveland would want Roddy Beaubois in any deal for LeBron. And the Mavericks also would be giving up Terry, who is a fan favorite and a pretty solid locker-room guy, too.
I'm not saying something like that couldn't happen. But I still think Cleveland would find a way to get more in return than a bad contract, a bad draft pick and some cap space in return.
Basically, I'm still the grim reaper when it comes to proposed trades. I tend to kill them all.
Q: Unfortunately, the Mavs' problem has persisted for years. When they fail in the fourth quarter, it's because they cannot or will not drive to the bucket. They hoist up perimeter jumpers. Carlisle needs to jump their tails about it. And the points in the paint are a disaster for this team. The coach needs to undo that mentality.
Warren
SEFKO: Well, duh.
All you have to do is check the list of things Rick has kicked in the locker room to know his frustration level with this team's obvious shortcomings.
This simply isn't a good points-in-the-paint team. Never has been. And they've actually been a little better this year. But they routinely give up 50 or even 60 points to the opponent.
Q: Big question for Big Ed. Erick Dampier is gone by next year. And if he somehow isn't, he's still getting old. This means they must get a center. Donnie Nelson must know this. Knowing the constraints, what does one do? The only thing I can think of is maybe getting somebody like Brendan Haywood. Are the Mavericks' hands tied because if they move Josh for Haywood, what do they use for bait in the free-agent market?
Cody
SEFKO: The center issue is one that will have to be resolved. No matter how good he's been, asking Drew Gooden to put in 30 minutes a night at center is not fair to him.
Love the Haywood idea, but the obvious hangup is that he's a free agent July 1. You have to be darn sure you can re-sign or extend him if you're going to bite the bullet and swap Howard or somebody else. And you'd certainly have to take back DeShawn Stevenson, too, who is a big bag of nothing in my opinion.
And his salary goes on another season.
I'd be more inclined to wait until July 1 and try to snag Haywood, or somebody else of that ilk, then. If you reel in somebody like Joe Johnson to join Dirk, I think getting a functional center to join the group would be an easy sell.
Q: Why did we trade for Eduardo Najera? Still not getting that, especially when Kris Humphries goes off for 25 in a game for the Nets.
Ron N., Dallas
SEFKO: Because he's a great locker-room presence, can earn you possessions with his hustle and, at the least, he's got a great first name.
Q: I'm growing weary of the nonsense about the Mavericks getting Wade, Bosh or LeBron. There is nothing the Mavericks have to offer that would make those teams give up their superstars. However, I'm intrigued by Chris Kaman. He's an amazing center who should be voted into the All-Star Game. I know he doesn't play the best defense, but he's very solid. And he knows Dirk from the German Olympic team.
Would the Clippers take something like Dampier or Howard and a first-round pick? With Blake Griffin, they already have their center of the future.
Alex B.
SEFKO: My first problem with this is that the word "amazing" and Chris Kaman rarely go well together. Kind of like putting ketchup on your peanut-butter sandwich.
I like Kaman. I've had him on my fantasy league team this season (yes, I'm a fantasy idiot, just like everybody else), and he's been good to me when he's been healthy.
But he's had physical problems a lot in his career. Plus, you are right about him not being a defensive center. And the Mavericks will always try to have a defensive presence at center.
Q: It's a good time to look at a deal the Mavs almost did last summer. I'm talking about Marcin Gortat. In my opinion, things turned out for the best. Gooden seems to be a better fit for this team. He's more active than Gortat, especially on the offensive boards. And what about Brandon Bass? Do you think they'd like to have him back?
Tom D.
SEFKO: We won't know about how Gortat would have fit in until he's getting 25 minutes somewhere. It wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs still have him on their radar for a possible deal this summer.
As for Bass, I'll pass. He was not the most dependable player last season, although he had his moments. I just think he'd have had trouble getting minutes at any position on this team as currently constituted.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]