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Forget the lottery: Anything can happen in playoffs

Missing postseason may bring radical changes for Mavericks

05:47 PM CDT on Friday, March 28, 2008


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All right, we'll say this once and only once.

The Mavericks are not better off going to the lottery.

End of subject.

No matter what any of us think, we can't see the future. So nobody knows if there might be lightning out there waiting to be caught in a Mavericks' bottle. Everybody thought the New York Giants were dead meat going into the NFL playoffs. All they did was win four in a row on the road, including the Super Bowl.

The Mavericks must make every attempt to get to the playoffs. Once they do, they have to remember that anything is possible, especially if Josh Howard and Jason Kidd become cohesive during Dirk Nowitzki's absence.

Forget about Mark Cuban making an extra million bucks or two for each home playoff game. That's not why the Mavericks must do everything they can to reach the postseason. It's their pride and a little thing called hope that must drive them.

That and their jobs, many of which will change radically in the off-season if there is no trip to the playoffs.

MAVERICKS Q&A

Q: Not that I'm starting to panic, but what is the deal with the Mavericks and road games? Why can't they win any of them?

Betty C., Jacksonville, Texas

SEFKO: First of all, you should be starting to panic.

Secondly, the Mavericks are 3-4 on the road since acquiring Jason Kidd, which isn't great, but isn't any worse than it's been all season. They still have a chance to finish with a road record somewhere around .500, which in the Western Conference isn't embarrassing.

But we've been spoiled by the last three seasons when the Mavericks were winning 31, 26 and 29 games away from home.

This year, it will be their late-season failures at home that will be their ill-fated legacy, if they miss the playoffs.

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Q: Oh purveyors of basketball insight and wisdom, what gives with Howard's performance of late? I thought of all the players that would benefit from Kidd's arrival, it would be Howard and Erick Dampier. Howard doesn't seem to move to the rim with or without the ball. Any thoughts?

Craig, Broken Arrow, Okla.

SEFKO: Your question came in before the Tuesday game against the Clippers, in which Howard was an absolute zealot about getting to the rim.

That doesn't mean he's going to do that every night, but it was a great thing to see, wasn't it? The key to Howard is to face facts and realize that getting to the rim is the only way he can regain All-Star status. There's nothing to his future if he stands around and fires up jump shots.

The good news is that he was rewarded in that Clippers game with 15 free throws, which was more than he'd ever shot before this season. He did have 17 earlier this year.

And remember, Bennett Salvatore was crew chief of the referees.

That should prove to Howard that he's better off trying to work his way into the lane than taking the easy way out and shooting jumpers.

But bear in mind that Howard went through a pretty rough stretch this season.

He lost two family members, then saw Devin Harris, one of his best friends, traded. Those are not easy situations. That's not an excuse when you're making many millions. But if he turns things around while Nowitzki is out, I think that would qualify as a nice season.

•••

Q: Do you think it was a good idea to trade Devin Harris for Jason Kidd? I'm watching Harris' play in New Jersey, and he's doing well.

SEFKO: Once again, I have to remind people that I said the day of the trade that I was against it. It's on record. Just ask any over-hyped radio host.

That said, I wish I was wrong. But the Mavericks have no chance to win a championship with this team. They may not have had a chance with Devin Harris, either. But they did have a chance to get better with two young players such as Harris and Josh Howard.

I'll stand by my original call.

•••

Q: If the Mavericks somehow miss the playoffs, is their first-round pick protected?

Joseph, Columbus, Ohio

SEFKO: The Mavericks get to keep the pick if they fail to make the playoffs. But they would have, what, four or five ping-pong balls in the lottery hopper out of 1,000?

Hardly seems worth trying to keep for the 14th overall pick.

Plus, if they miss the playoffs this year, they will be in deep trouble of missing them again next season, which would send a lottery pick to the Nets. If the Mavericks keep their pick this season, they lose it next year no matter what.

Better to make the playoffs, send the pick, which would be around 18 or so, and try to win this year. What else did you make the trade for?

•••

Q: What happened to Eddie Jones? He went from starter to missing in action.

Brian, Dallas

SEFKO: He assures me that we'll have something to write about him in the near future. But his health is certainly open to discussion.

I think we have to trust the coaching staff on this one. Jones hasn't been good enough physically to play the kind of defense Avery Johnson was looking for. And he hasn't hit enough shots to make up the difference.

We'll have to wait and see if that changes down the stretch. But nobody should be holding their breath.

•••

Q: Thanks to Eddie Sefko for writing some positive stories about the Mavericks. You are the only reporter who has not consistently downed the Mavericks to the ridiculous. Keep Eddie and send the rest packing, especially Tim M.

A.E.

SEFKO: I can only presume you are talking about Tim MacMahon, our blogophobe. The main reason I published this letter is because it's nice to know that somebody thinks I'm pro-Maverick. I get a ton of e-mail, not to mention commentary from the Mavericks, saying I'm too old, hard and crusty against the team.

Hey, two out of three ain't bad.

Mostly, some of us have to try to balance our bashing of the team with giving credit when it is due. That's not as easy as it sounds, by the way.

•••

Q: Why does Avery Johnson seem to get a free pass? Until recently, all of the Mavericks' failures seemed to be placed on Dirk. I liked Avery as a player, but he was clearly outcoached in the last two playoff series. Why doesn't he get mentioned?

Brian B.

SEFKO: Oh, I think the coach will be mentioned a lot in the coming weeks. This entire season is going to be on him if it goes out of control.

The problem is that only Mark Cuban can make any final assessments of Johnson. It doesn't matter what anybody else thinks, although public opinion has been known to make a difference in the past.

Mostly, Johnson needs to get the Mavericks into the playoffs and give a serious showing once they are there. That will make everything a lot easier for Cuban, who certainly doesn't want to bite $12 million in salary to Johnson to get rid of his final three seasons.

•••

Q: I've given up on this bunch for the playoffs. My questions are, first, with one season left on his contract, what are the chances the Suns deal Steve Nash and, yes, you know where I'm going with this, he ends up back here? Also, could Eddie Curry be here next year?

Gary

SEFKO: I actually kind of like the Curry idea, although he's about as big an underachiever as there is in the game. Tyson Chandler ended up being the keeper of that original, star-crossed, Chicago duo. But it just seems he's too close to Dampier in many regards, particularly his inconsistency.

As for Nash, that's exactly what the Mavericks need to do – spend a whole bunch of money on the guy that's already used up his MVP skills and now really is getting old. Give me a break.

If they wouldn't pay him four years ago, why would they now?

•••

Q: Once again, Dirk has proved my point. The Mavericks are not going any where with him as their go-to guy. He misses too many big shots. He's not going to take the Mavericks over any hump the way LeBron James, Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan can. The Mavericks should get Shawn Marion in the off-season. What do you think?

Santosh P.

SEFKO: I think you need to go talk to Nash before you jump on the Marion bandwagon. The guy was poison in Phoenix. And if you really think Marion would end up as a better go-to guy than Dirk, I think your career as an NBA GM is already over.

By the way, Nowitzki has led the Mavericks to the Finals, which is more than Kobe can say about the Lakers. All he did is ride the Big Fella's coattails.

But I digress. Anybody who wants to get rid of Nowitzki better be careful what they wish for. It's a short trip to becoming the Timberwolves, who actually got decent returns on the Kevin Garnett deal but still are looking at two or three more years in lotteryville.

•••

Q: Could someone please explain how, with all the failed roster moves, that Donnie Nelson is immune to criticism?

Bryan R.

SEFKO: First of all, Nelson has orchestrated some nice deals. And when you make as many as the Mavericks have in the last half-dozen years, you are bound to whiff on a few of them.

I'd give them credit for continuing to swing.

But Nelson rarely has the final say on major transactions. That usually falls on Mark Cuban and/or Avery Johnson. If you're going to hang anybody for botched trades or drafts, that's where you have to start.

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