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SURPRISE, Ariz. – Spring training statistics are as unpredictable as the March weather in Arizona. One day, it's sweaty hot; the next you are looking for your winter coat. Still remember the game in Peoria a couple of years ago, when snowcapped mountains poked out from behind the center field wall.

Or, in less meteorological terms, spring training statistics can fool you.

Just remember Kameron Loe had a wonderful spring last year and failed as a regular-season starter. Jamey Wright looked awful as a starter and flourished as a reliever. Spring training numbers can be deceiving. With that in mind, here are five exciting numbers (through Monday), some of which may be truly exciting and some not.

•Jason Botts' .977 OPS: A very nice number, but I'm fixated on an at-bat in which Botts had a chance to drive in runs with less than two outs but hit into what should have been a double-play. He's got to slug his way on to the team. As of Tuesday afternoon, he had fewer RBIs than Nate Gold. Botts is having a fine spring, but I'm not sure he's convinced the Rangers he'll be enough of an offensive force to be a backup first baseman/sixth outfielder/right-handed DH.

•Franklyn German's 0.00 ERA: German had six strikeouts and no walks in his first four innings of work and is emerging as a legitimate candidate for the bullpen. But he has a 10-year track of record of having trouble throwing strikes in the regular season. He walked 46 in 59 1/3 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma last year and has 106 career walks in 137 major league innings. Maybe he's gotten command of his fastball. But it's also important to consider what he's done in the past.

•Josh Hamilton's .450 batting average: Be excited about this one. Be very excited. Everything he hits, he hits hard. And these numbers don't include the three hits, one of which was a homer, he had Tuesday. If he stays on the field, he's going to have a very big year.

•Julio Borbon and Chris Davis' combined total of three homers: No less an authority than Nolan Ryan was very impressed with the play of Borbon and Davis during the first 10 days of games. I'll defer to the Hall of Famer here. If he's excited about what he saw, then I'll take it as gospel. Just so long as the Rangers don't rush the duo.

•Luis Mendoza's 10.80 ERA: It's not pretty. But Mendoza has impressed teammates and coaches with his fearlessness and his willingness to throw strikes. If the Rangers weren't exactly convinced of what they had in Mendoza after his impressive September in 2007, they are now. As Kevin Millwood said: "I'd hate to be the guy waiting for him to mess up to get a spot in the rotation."

Q: Do the Rangers have any recourse to negate the trade for McCarthy since he has always been injured? He was damaged goods, and I bet the White Sox had a hint of that beforehand.

GRANT: Can't ever say never, because you never know what a creative lawyer might be able to come up with, but I mean we're talking like Clarence Darrow here. It's highly unlikely. Even the manufacturer's warranty on most new products is no longer than a year. McCarthy had no hint of elbow trouble until late last summer; his early-season issue was poor performance and then blisters.

Q: If Jarrod Saltalamacchia does not win the starting catcher role, could he be traded since we have so many catchers in the system? It seems to me that he is somewhat of a lame duck if he doesn't start for the Rangers. If he is traded, what could the Rangers get for him?

Chad Roberts, St. Paul, Minn.

GRANT: If he doesn't win the starting catcher's job – and right now it's Gerald Laird's job to lose – the most likely scenario is for him to go to Triple-A Oklahoma and play regularly. Having too many catchers in the system is never a problem. Catchers have value. If there is a legitimate surplus, the Rangers will be able to find trade partners. Don't be concerned about that. If the Rangers traded a catcher, they'd almost certainly be looking for pitching or a power-hitting outfielder. Like catching, you can never have enough of the former, and the latter seems to be the most glaring hole in the system.

Of more concern is whether such a surplus will actually exist. While there is plenty of projectable talent in the system, it's worth remembering Gerald Laird hit .224 last year, Taylor Teagarden and Cristian Santana have both had significant surgical procedures on their arms and Max Ramirez is considered more of a hitter than a catcher. Bottom line: It's too early to determine if such a surplus actually exists.

Q: I watched a young player name Jim Fasano put on a power clinic during BP one day. He ended up at Frisco but didn't seem to play a whole lot. Is he still with the Rangers, and if so, what is going on with his progress?

GRANT: Fasano was selected in the ninth round of the 2004 draft and is still in the system. He has, however, been passed by Chris Davis. If Davis opens the season at Triple-A Oklahoma, Fasano could be the first baseman at Double-A Frisco. The most likely scenario, however, is for Nate Gold or Chris Shelton to start at first at Oklahoma, Davis to start at Frisco, and Fasano to go to Class A Bakersfield. Fasano hit 13 homers in 306 at-bats last season.

Q: What minor leaguers not on the radar are poised to really break out this season, for example, someone who may jump 20 spots or more in our prospect rankings during the course of the season? My pick was Jesse Ingram, but it appears that he's retired. Shows what I know. My next best guess would be Jose Vallejo. Who looks good to you out there?

Cody, Wichita, Kan.

GRANT: Don't know that there is anyone who could jump 20 spots, but I'll just assume you are talking about guys who aren't ranked in the top 20 who could move into those rankings this year.

I'll give you a couple of names, and I'm not entirely sure why: Vallejo is a good place to start, because he's quick and athletic and has been overshadowed by the presence of Ian Kinsler and German Duran rising through the system the last couple of years. Vallejo is 21 and will probably start out at Class A Bakersfield this season. That's the level at which Duran, Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden all had big years.

Others I like: RHP Carlos Pimentel, an 18-year-old string bean who struck out 59 in 42 1/3 innings in the Arizona Rookie League last year; LHP Zach Phillips, who is on the cusp of several top 20 lists but seems to get overshadowed by guys with more stuff. All I know is Phillips, 21, averaged more than a strikeout per inning last year while pitching 151 2/3 innings. INF Marcus Lemon, who received a $1 million bonus in 2006, could also make a big leap forward. Lemon is an exceptional athlete who seems to have a pretty good understanding of plate discipline. Though he hit only .262 at Class A Clinton last year as a 19-year-old, he had a .352 on-base percentage.

Q: I read an article the other day with Michael Young about how he wants to win now and is tired of waiting around to win. If this is the case, why did he sign a five-year contract last year? Surely he knew the team was not going to be the contender that we all want them to be before 2009.

Also, are there any stipulations to his contract for trades, and how long do you think it will be before he is pulling a Jason Kidd and requesting a trade? I have always liked Young, but since that contract he signed last year, he seems to be a bit more vocal about his views of what is going on with the team and what he wants to see. Do you think this will cause any commotion in the clubhouse?

Brandon Shaw

GRANT: First, let's get the "why did he sign" out of the way: He signed because the Rangers offered him $80 million. That's not to say that Young signed simply for the dollars, but he wanted to be here, wants to win here, and the wage offering was enough to set up his family for generations to come.

Now, about wanting to win. Young signed the contract last March, when the team was still flirting with the idea of keeping Mark Teixeira. Young signed with the idea the Rangers would be better in 2007 than they were in 2006, and that they were going to continue to improve and that the payroll would also grow. No other way to say this: He overevaluated the team's chances to win last year. But then he wasn't the only one to make that mistake. I remember one fool – hey, I can call myself names – who predicted as early as the second week of March that the Rangers were going to win the West. And when it went terribly, the Rangers decided that trading Teixeira was in the club's best long-term interests.

As Young has said before, players don't look at the long-term. That's for the executives. Players look at trying to win every night. And they expect those wins to matter. So, yeah, it's frustrating for players not to win. It's especially frustrating for Young, who has had one winning season in seven major league seasons. The rebuilding program probably means this won't be a winning season, and 2009 isn't looking so certain either.

Young could request a trade, but I just don't think it will come to that. He wants to win, and he wants it to be here, where he's put in the effort. Look, all I can say about Michael Young is that from my experience with him, he goes in the same category as Rusty Greer when it comes to being level-headed, dedicated and loyal. They are both off-the-scale, at least as far as I can tell. But if you ask a guy if he's happy about going through a third rebuilding effort (second half of 2001, 2004, and now) in seven major league seasons without ever having tasted the playoffs, how do you expect him to respond? I expect him to say the same thing I hear from fans: When is this franchise going to win? And why can't it be now?

Q: I read where Orel Hershiser made the final eight in NBC's National Heads-up Poker Championships in Las Vegas last weekend. This accomplishment appears to be further indication of Orel's immense talents and intelligence. At one point Orel seemed in position to take over the general manager's duties for the Rangers. You would think that the Rangers would have tried harder to keep a person with Orel's talents within the organization. What happened?

Rob, Frisco

GRANT: Poker skills don't necessarily make a good baseball man. It's still about managing people, talent evaluation skills and showing loyalty.

The truth is Hershiser overplayed his hand with the Rangers. He seemed to be perpetually involved in power plays. First, he aligned himself with Buck Showalter in the coup that ousted Grady Fuson as GM heir apparent in 2004. Then he and Showalter seemed to have a parting of ways during the 2005 season over the decision to waive Ryan Drese. Finally, after the 2005 season, Hershiser lobbied for the job of GM or field manager in Los Angeles while putting the Rangers on hold for far longer than the club was comfortable with.

Hershiser didn't leave here on the best of terms. Wouldn't expect to see him connected with this team so long as Jon Daniels or Nolan Ryan are in top positions. And besides, he'll be busy at the World Series of Poker.

Q: What would it take to land Nomar Garciaparra from the Dodgers if he does lose the third-base battle to Andy LaRoche? I realize Garciaparra would still have value for them, but if we could get him for say Max Ramirez, I might have to pull the trigger. I realize they have Russell Martin, but could they use him? Who else would it take?

Stephen V.

GRANT: As one of those overly peppy contestants on the Howie Mandel gimmick might say: "No Deal!"

First, let's be fair to Stephen. He sent this question before Andy LaRoche tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb and knocked himself out for two or three months. That injury would seem to make Garciaparra indispensable to the Dodgers unless they got a replacement third baseman. You want to trade Hank Blalock for Garciaparra? I don't. As you mention, Stephen, the Dodgers have Russell Martin; that rules out the need for Max Ramirez.

There wasn't a real reason to ponder such a deal before LaRoche got hurt. There is even less reason now.

Q: Just wanted to get your thoughts on some retired numbers. I would assume the Rangers retiring the No. 7 is all but certain. But with all of the steroid controversy, what are the chances that No. 19 and 25 are retired? And any chance that 29 and 37 go up at some point?

John Schafer

GRANT: Yes, No. 7 will be retired, perhaps while Pudge Rodriguez is still active. If Rodriguez announces that a particular year will be his last, I could see the Rangers announcing the retirement of his number upon his last visit to Arlington. But who knows when that will actually be? Pudge is a freak of nature. I think eventually Rusty Greer's No. 29 will also be retired. When, I'm not sure. But I'll just take a guess and say 2012, which would be 10 years after Greer played his last major league game.

The other numbers (19 for Juan Gonzalez, 25 for Rafael Palmeiro and 37 for Kenny Rogers) are toss-up questions. None left Texas on good terms, and I can't see Tom Hicks giving the OK to honor any of them any time soon. If one of them had taken the Rangers to a World Series or something, it might be different. But while Greer will probably be honored as much for his presence off the field as on the field, I can't see off-the-field behavior being an asset for any of the other three.

Q: It looks to me like Chris Davis may start the year as the RedHawks first baseman. Do you agree, and if so, what happens to Nate Gold? Also, for the first time in recent memory, it looks like we may have several legitimate prospects on the RedHawks to begin the season. I know it's early, but who are some of the veterans that may be on the team to help counterbalance that?

Beverly, Oklahoma City

GRANT: As I mentioned earlier, I think Davis opens the season at Double-A Frisco since he played less than half a season there in 2007. I think that would leave Nate Gold and Chris Shelton to work at first base and DH.

Here's a guess at the rest of the roster:

C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Stewart

INF: Nate Gold (1B); German Duran (2B); Joaquin Arias (SS); Travis Metcalf, when he's recovered from hamstring surgery (3B); Drew Meyer (INF); Chris Shelton (1B-OF-DH)

OF: Kevin Mahar, Brandon Boggs, Steve Murphy and Jason Ellison

Starters: RHP Eric Hurley, LHP A.J. Murray, RHP Sidney Ponson, RHP Doug Mathis and TBA.

Bullpen: Completely up in the air. There are a number of guys vying for spots in the major league bullpen who will wind up in Oklahoma if they lose out in the current competition.

I expect Davis, catcher Taylor Teagarden and perhaps OF John Mayberry Jr. to play at Oklahoma before the season is over. But since none of them has a full season at Double-A, I suggest it's likely they will start the year in Frisco and eventually move up.

Q: For years we heard that Pudge Rodriguez was no good with pitchers, he did not call a good game, frame the plate, blah, blah, blah. He leaves Texas, gets two rings and mysteriously became good with pitchers and calling games.

I know this might be oversimplifying, but if you have stinko pitchers, any catcher is going to be subject to this criticism. With that being said, what is the real scoop with Gerald Laird. He came from another farm system and just popped on the scene one day. We really did not know him. Is he any good, or is he just a journeyman?

R L C Rendon

GRANT: First of all, the proper usage is "yada, yada, yada." Second, Pudge only got one ring (2003 with Florida). He only reached the World Series with Detroit. But I get your drift.

And I agree: A good pitching staff is going to make any catcher look better; there is only so much lipstick a catcher can slap on a bad pitching staff.

Let's put it this way: I don't know if Laird gets the most out of his pitching staff, but I don't think he has a negative impact either. He's probably what you would call a "neutral." But Rodriguez's defensive faults could often be overlooked because of his throwing skills and his hitting abilities. Laird is an above-average thrower, but if he doesn't improve his hitting there will be questions about whether he's an overall asset or liability.