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Texas Rangers' rebuilding process complicated
02:51 AM CDT on Wednesday, April 2, 2008
I still remember the first lesson a scout taught me about covering baseball.
"The first thing you've got to do when you are talking about a trade," he said, "is ask yourself: 'Does it make sense?' If it doesn't, there is no reason to go any further."
Sounds simple. But trust me, based on the trade proposals I get in my inbox and the ones that seem to pop up all over the interweb thingy, a lot of other folks out there could use the same talk.
My point here isn't trades. It's that occasionally, if you are listening, baseball folks will still say something profound. It happened just a couple of weeks ago, and it's made me significantly change my thought on the promotion of young players.
I used to think as soon as guys started dominating in the upper levels of the minors, you get them to the majors. That was the whole point of development. Get them to the big leagues as soon as possible.
Maybe it's a little more complicated than that.
In researching the main story for the Rangers' preview section, I got bogged down trying to figure out how to quantify legitimate progress when a team is in the dreaded rebuilding program. I also sought information on the rebuilding process. Because it's easy to say you are rebuilding, but a little tougher to explain what all is involved.
As part of that research, I interviewed Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro. Shapiro said a huge part of rebuilding is synchronizing talent. It's about far more than just each individual player being ready for the majors, Shapiro said. It's about getting the maximum number of young talents to play the maximum amount of time together.
Think about it.
It's a beautiful concept.
Maybe that's why Eric Hurley and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are in the minors this year. If you had them both on the roster from the start of the year, you'd be using up a year of service time at a point when neither would probably make much difference in the standings.
A year from now, though, maybe Josh Hamilton has established himself as a superstar and David Murphy has rekindled the ghost of Rusty Greer. Maybe Ian Kinsler is an All-Star by that point, Luis Mendoza is legit and Brandon McCarthy is healthy.
Now, add to Hurley and Saltalamacchia, the possibility of bringing up Chris Davis and German Duran.
That's three fifths of the rotation, half the infield and a pair of outfielders. It also doesn't take in mind the veterans in the early stages of multiyear deals (Hello, Michael Young).
It sets the stage for more of the younger waves of talent to arrive when the Rangers would be loaded with young, but experienced major leaguers.
And it reminds you that rebuilding isn't just about getting homegrown talent to the majors but about getting the most talent to the big leagues at the same time. It reminds you that championships aren't won by one or two players, but by whole teams of 25.
That, and not simply bragging about prospects, is at the core of the Rangers' current rebuilding process.
Q. I have followed the Rangers for more years than I care to remember. Owners, GMs and managers have come and gone, but they still seem to make the same wrong decisions, bad trades, etc. How many center fielders have we had over the last 10 years? They are still looking for left, right and first base. Kevin Mench finishes the spring with the fourth-highest batting average and he goes to the minors while Marlon Byrd starts.
Bob Barker, Austin
GRANT: Let me apologize beforehand: BOB BARKER! COME ON DOWN! YOU'RE THE NEXT CONTESTANT ON INSIDE THE RANGERS! Again, I'm sorry.
OK, Bob, let's go back a little farther on the center-field thing. Here are the Rangers' opening day center fielders since Rangers Ballpark in Arlington opened in 1994: David Hulse, Otis Nixon, Darryl Hamilton, Damon Buford, Tom Goodwin, Goodwin, Ruben Mateo, Bo Porter, Carl Everett, Doug Glanville, Laynce Nix, Gary Matthews Jr., Nix, Kenny Lofton and Josh Hamilton. If you are counting that's 13 in 15 seasons. But I think Hamilton will be there for a while, at least two more openers before moving to a corner. That's progress.
The Rangers think they have a first base answer in Chris Davis and believe when Julio Borbon and/or Engel Beltre are ready for the majors, they'll have all three outfield spots (counting Hamilton in that mix) for several years.
Unless there were injuries or trades or Kevin Mench led the majors in home runs, he was destined for the minors. It's worth noting that Mench over the last two seasons has appeared to be on the decline. Byrd had a big year last year. The Rangers, like most clubs, based their final roster decisions on recent track record rather than 50 spring at-bats. I think that's a much more prudent way to do things, anyway.
Q: While this isn't Rangers related, I thought it was interesting. Why did MLB schedule Washington just one game to open their new stadium? Have you ever seen that before? I was shocked to see them on the road (Monday) after just one game against Atlanta on Sunday night. Kind of a weak way to open a new stadium, isn't it?
GRANT: MLB's schedule gets stranger and stranger by the season. It still completely befuddles me how the Rangers have opened at home just once in the last eight seasons. Arlington is a warm-weather spot with fairly mild springs. It would seem to make sense to have them open at home more than occasionally.
Meanwhile, the following teams with domed stadiums opened on the road: Tampa Bay (at Baltimore), Milwaukee (at Chicago Cubs) and Arizona (at Cincinnati). Under baseball tradition, Cincinnati always opens at home, but it still seems strange that a team from a domed stadium wouldn't be playing at home in March.
The same applies to the Nationals' situation. I haven't researched it deeply enough, but I'm sure there is some perfectly rational political or TV-centric reason Washington played a one-game home series, but from a common-sense perspective, it makes no sense. Either play a full series at home to start the year or hold off on the big festivities until the team returns from its first road trip for a legitimate home opener.
Q: Ron Washington said he's going to start a bunch of lefties against Erik Bedard on opening day. He said he wants to get his lefties prepared and ready to hit against left-handed pitching. But almost every player he plans to "train" is a veteran without a proven track record hitting left-handed pitching. Ben Broussard, Frank Catalanatto, Hank Blalock ... these are all veterans who "are what they are."
Players don't just change and get real good at something in the middle of their careers. Only David Murphy and Josh Hamilton are guys with potential room to improve, since they have no proven track record.
Basically, I want to know how long this will last? The Rangers don't have a lot of room to switch to a right-handed hitting lineup, but there is a reason Marlon Byrd and Jason Botts made this team.
Anthony, Denton
GRANT: First, understand Washington has no intentions of playing Catalanotto vs. left-handers. That will be Murphy's job. Second, even if he was so inclined, he has no right-handed hitting option to replace Blalock at third vs. lefties since bench infielder Ramon Vazquez is a left-handed hitter. And Broussard will start the season playing against some lefties, but when Jason Botts gets into the lineup, it will be vs. left-handed pitching. By the middle of May, that could be a straight platoon.
Too often, managers look at numbers as complete crutches. They don't hit their left-handed hitters against left-handed starters because of "bad numbers," which only get worse after the players stop starting against lefties. Why? Because they are often still in the game when a right-handed starter is removed and replaced by a top left-handed situational reliever. Disadvantage left-handed hitter. It creates a never-ending cycle of ugly numbers. Better these guys get some idea now about what lefties feature so that when they face them late in games, they've got a better chance to deliver.
Q. I read the Rangers have placed Brandon McCarthy on the 60-day disabled list. Can we safely say now that this trade and giving up John Danks in the process was a mistake? It seems to me that McCarthy is always on the disabled list with some health issue.
Correnda Cantrell
GRANT: I'll be the first to say at this point, the McCarthy trade has not worked out the way the Rangers wanted. McCarthy was supposed to be more ready to compete in the majors in 2007 than Danks. Basically, they were even. That's a strike against trading for McCarthy.
Going forward, McCarthy has over a year's worth of service time more than Danks, which means he's that much closer to the big-number salaries of arbitration and, ultimately, free agency. That's strike two.
And he's very quickly gaining a reputation as being injury prone. But I'll call that a foul ball.
McCarthy is still only 24, and there is plenty of time over the next four-plus years for him to develop into a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation pitcher and maybe even peak a little higher. Will he? Will Danks? No telling. Bottom line: The trade is done, and it's been done for more than a year now. The Rangers have McCarthy. No sense hand-wringing over whether they won or lost the trade. The Rangers must spend time trying to figure out how to maximize McCarthy's talents and to how to keep him healthy.
Q: What does the staff see in Jason Botts to add him to the team? Both Kevin Mench and Jason Ellison had better spring offensive numbers and there is no comparison defensively.
Michael, Austin
GRANT: Yep, they sure did. Mench had 44 at-bats, Ellison 33 and Botts 48 in Arizona. Do you want to base your decisions on that or that Ellison has had more than 300 career regular-season plate appearances than Botts or that Mench has had 2,000 more?
The point is the Rangers know what Ellison and Mench are at this point, nice role players at the end of a bench. There is a legitimate chance Botts can be that. There is at least some chance he can be more.
You might be able to win a debate with me that the Rangers should have found out about Botts before this point, but when it came time to roster decision-time, the choice was easy. The Rangers could look at Botts in the majors without risking losing Ellison or Mench. They could not look at either of the other players without risking the loss of Botts. If Botts fails, one of the others will get a chance.
And, as far as the roster goes, for what the Rangers really need defensively from this spot – a right-handed hitting first baseman – Botts is the better choice than either Ellison or Mench. The club does not need another center fielder or another corner outfielder. Mench's play at first is not as refined as Botts'.
Q: Robinson Tejeda: What happened to him? He showed so much promise. He should have been at least a No. 2 this year.
Dick Barron
GRANT: For a stretch of 10 starts from mid-August 2006 through the home opener last year, Tejeda did show all kinds of promise. He was 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA and allowed a very manageable 18 walks in 61.1 innings. In his other 23 starts with the Rangers before and after that stretch: 5-12 with a 7.61 ERA and 74 walks in 107.2 innings.
With Tejeda's wild and violent delivery, there are moments when everything aligns, and his command is almost as good as his velocity. For those stretches: Wow! But more often than not, he's been so off-balance, he's looked like he was throwing a javelin instead of the baseball. A quick baseball physics lesson: Throwing with an uphill motion is not recommended operating procedure. The Rangers have tried, and he still seems to be stuck in that delivery.
The last straw, I believe, for Rangers management occurred on the final Monday of the spring schedule. Tejeda allowed a walkoff hit to the Chicago Cubs but didn't seem to realize the game was over and tried to get back on the mound to face another hitter. Now, you could say there's no quit in him. But the Rangers saw that as more a complete lack of awareness. Still, if he goes on waivers and clears, the club will continue to try and hone that delivery into something more consistent at Triple-A Oklahoma.
He's only 26. The possibility exists, he might keep it all together for an impressive season.
Q: Throughout this past off-season and spring training, I am sure that you received a countless number of e-mails and letters from fans stating their dissatisfaction with a particular signing, trade, nontrade, etc. Which player (or players) will have the shortest leash with Ranger fans this season?
Patrick, Somerville, Mass.
GRANT: Patrick, based on the correspondence I get from Rangers fans, I'm pretty confident in saying this: They didn't care for the Chris Young-Adrian Gonzalez trade, feel strongly one way or another (but never just in the middle) on Jason Botts' abilities, are a wee bit frustrated with losing, want the red uniforms back. Oh, and many want to know what Jeff Zimmerman is up to these days. (Note to Zimm: If you are reading this up in Canada, write in; you still have fans).
About this season, I think the player with the "shortest leash" is Ben Broussard. A lot of folks, as noted above, aren't sure he can hit left-handed pitching. A significant number also feel that Chris Davis is ready to take over at first base right now.
Q: I get the feeling most of baseball views this club condescendingly. When you meet other writers, and they discover that you are a Rangers beat writer, do they apologize to you and then snicker as you walk away? It seems nationally that this club will get no respect, even if it wins 90 games. There was none when they were in the hunt three years ago. Will nothing less than a championship change this perception?
GRANT: Lots of people snicker when they meet me. I didn't think it had anything to do with the Rangers.
But to answer your question, until this club wins at least a round of the playoffs, I think there will be a national perception that the Rangers don't have to be reckoned with. It's that simple. The Rangers have spent 36 seasons in Texas and don't have a playoff series win to show for it. It tends to make the media, cynical in general, moreso. We live in a "show me what you have done" society. The Rangers don't have street cred there.
Q: What kind of offensive numbers do you think Marlon Byrd will put up this year? Will the Rangers regret not trading him for Matt Murton when they had a chance?
Kevin Olding
GRANT: I don't expect Marlon Byrd to be a .300 hitter again this season, but I do think it's possible for him to be in the .270-.280 range with a .330-.340 OBP. He's never going to be a slugger, but if he reaches those numbers and gives the Rangers solid outfield defense and remains an important clubhouse influence, he'll be a significant contributor.
The Cubs view Murton as a fourth outfielder with limited defensive skills. I don't think many clubs are going to regret not having that type of player around long-term. If you want that kind of player, they are readily available at cheap prices year in and year out. I don't see Murton being a starting corner outfielder in the majors, but he is younger than Byrd and it's possible there could still be some development to come.
Q: Why was Kason Gabbard given a pass this spring after looking terrible in all of his starts? Not only was he bad against the bigs, but he was eventually nailed pitching against Double-A Frisco. I understand ignoring the performance of an established starter in the spring, but Gabbard is not and the Rangers had other alternatives (Eric Hurley, Kameron Loe, A.J. Murray).
GRANT: The Rangers don't want to put Hurley on the 40-man roster until they absolutely have to, which means September is the most likely time for his debut. Neither Loe nor Murray had very good springs to speak of, either. Loe had trouble getting his sinking fastball to sink, and Murray had significant command issues that took him out of the mix early in camp.
My thoughts on Gabbard: I applaud the Rangers for sticking with their plan and not wavering after 16 spring innings. The Rangers basically made a commitment to the pitchers in their rotation before the spring started and they stuck with it. Too often, this club has gotten panicky in the last week of spring training and made big changes based on what's taken place in a two- or three-week time frame. And that hasn't worked out real well.
In addition, Gabbard has to get some benefit of the doubt. He is a "feel" pitcher, who relies on a slightly-below-average fastball, but more heavily on a changeup and a curve. Arizona is not the right place for feel guys to build confidence. The dry, thin, windy air makes it difficult to grip pitches and even more difficult to get them to act properly.
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