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While Texas Rangers round the bases, fans stay at home

07:24 PM CDT on Tuesday, June 10, 2008


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It is June. The Texas Rangers' overall record is probably slightly better than you thought it would be before the season. It is undoubtedly a lot better than you thought it would be on say April 15. Nolan Ryan is back with the team. Josh Hamilton is a Sports Illustrated cover boy AND the most exciting player in baseball.

And the Rangers are on a pace for less than two million fans.

Why is that?

It was a big topic of discussion on the Rangers blog recently. Tim McMahon raised the question raised the question and I answered with my thoughts.

You will find my theories, harebrained though they may be, below. But I think this is one of those opportunities when the blog isn't just for wisecracks or rumors, but rather a genuine way of making your voice heard. So, if you want, read my theories. Visit the links above and add your voice to the conversation.

And now for a big moment in synergy. In ascending order, directly from the dallasnews.com Texas Rangers blog, come the five biggest reasons fans haven't turned out to see the Rangers this season:

5. It's hot: The biggest mistake made in building Rangers Ballpark was not building it with a roof. The second biggest mistake: Not retrofitting it so a retractable roof would be relatively cost-efficient down the road. The place is hot and uncomfortable. I am not motivated to go out there and plunk down money as a fan after May 1. I can't imagine that, unless the team wins, many others would be similarly motivated.

4. Bad schedule: There have been no Yankees or Red Sox appearances this year. And there won't be a Cubs appearance. The Rangers averaged 33,536 fans for the 11 gates with those clubs last year. And all of those dates took place before the end of June. The Rangers don't face the Yankees at home until August, and they don't host the Red Sox until September. It's kind of like waiting for those last precincts to report.

3. Poor season ticket sales: As early as his second week on the job, Nolan Ryan said he was concerned about ticket sales. Season tickets were down again off of last year, and they've pretty much been in a constant slide since the 2002 season.

2. History: The Rangers have gone eight years without a playoff appearance. They've won one game in their playoff history. You know the story. The more you grow a tradition of losing, the harder it becomes to sell tickets.

1. Lack of wins: Winning cures everything over time. If the Rangers got off to a hot start in April and continued it in May, tickets would be a very hot item right now. You might not see a huge difference in attendance to this point, but you would see a dramatic difference the rest of the way.

What do you think? Add your voice to the conversation.

RANGERS Q&A

Q: I know this sounds like a broken record: Year after year, the Rangers can hit the cover off the ball but can't pitch their way out of a wet paper bag. My question is, is it time to bring up some of the young pitching prospects and let them learn on the job like the Tigers did a few years ago?

Randy L., Mesquite

GRANT: I've long been a proponent of a plan ala Detroit's, based on the notion that aggressive promotion of young pitchers helped get the Tigers to the World Series in 2006. But now I'm not so sure that just turning things over to kids en masse is the right approach either. Look at the Tigers and their starting rotation ERA of 5.01 (which is worse than the Rangers' 4.84). Jeremy Bonderman is done for the season. Justin Verlander's ERA is above five. Nate Robertson's is above six. They've traded away all their young pitching prospects and sit in fourth place in the AL Central, a colossal bust this season.

It's clear that the young pitching played an important part in getting the Tigers to the World Series, but no so sure it was the start of a dynastic rotation. And it certainly appears the Tigers overplayed their hand by trading away the top pitching prospects in the organization.

The more I look at this, the more I like the Cleveland plan. In a gross generalization: It appears to be based on breaking in young guys at the rate of one per year and adding a veteran on a short-term (one- or two-year deals) to add depth to the rotation while it is growing. Cleveland is also struggling this season, but the rotation, which has an ERA of 3.81 (fourth in the AL), is not part of its problem. And don't get me wrong, when I speak of the "Cleveland plan," that's not to suggest the Indians have been the trendsetter in this area. They are simply following the same plans that Atlanta, Minnesota, Oakland and the LA Angels have all used to build a nucleus for franchises to make multiple playoff runs.

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Q: Why hasn't Toby Harrah been elected into the Texas Rangers Hall of Fame and is there anything that can be done to help him get nominated and/or elected?

Steve, Westfield, N.J.

GRANT: There isn't anything you can do right now, Steve. Fan voting has ended for this year's Hall of Fame class, and I expect an announcement on who will be inducted (if anybody) to come around the first of July. He's been a nominee every year, just has fallen short in whatever combination of fan voting/organizational input the Rangers use to determine the hall class.

Harrah had a very solid Rangers career, but if this organization had a little more winning tradition or a little more history, I think he would a marginal call as a Hall of Famer. But he's certainly on par as a player with Buddy Bell (at least in my opinion), and Bell is a Rangers Hall of Famer.

For me, the next couple of Rangers Hall classes would be easy. And they wouldn't include a whole lot of players. First, I'd induct Tom Grieve for his contributions and long-lasting service to the organization. Grieve, Mr. Ranger, would be my only inductee for this season. All the other inductees are in either because of their playing contributions for the club, because they were great players who spent a few years with the club, or because of their off-the-field contributions to the team. Grieve should be inducted based on some kind of combination of playing contributions (though none of his career stats were legendary) combined with his front-office smarts (he led the modern-day charge into Latin America) and his ambassadorship as a Rangers broadcaster for more than a decade.

Once Grieve was enshrined, the next call for me would be Eric Nadel. As popular as Mark Holtz and as great a job as he did, Eric has become THE VOICE of the Rangers. And the year after that, which would be 2010, I'd induct Tom Schieffer for his work on getting Rangers Ballpark in Arlington built (thus helping to keep the club in Texas) and for his role in building the Rangers into a winner. I might pair Schieffer's induction up with Doug Melvin. And by that time, several very worthy players should be officially retired for two years (meeting the Hall requirements). Maybe Ruben Sierra and Juan Gonzalez in 2011. Rafael Palmeiro in 2012. Kenny Rogers in 2013. Ivan Rodriguez in 2014.

• • •

Q: 1. Did Sidney Ponson just torpedo a Comeback Player of the Year award?

2. How much is losing Ponson going to hurt the Rangers?

3. Did protecting Josh Hamilton's sobriety figure into this at all?

4. Is there any chance the Rangers can trade Ponson, possibly including someone like Nate Gold and/or Hank Blalock/Travis Metcalf, to get a decent, inning-eating No. 3 starter to replace Ponson?

GRANT: 1. At this point, Ponson would be lagging well behind Milton Bradley in Comeback Player of the Year candidacy (Remember, Bradley played only 61 games last year).

2. Ponson was eating up some innings but was also allowing hitters a .307 batting average. Over the past 40 years, 18 pitchers have had 200-plus inning seasons and allowed .300 or higher batting average (including Ponson in 2004, when he went 11-15 for Baltimore) and two of them, Carlos Silva in 2004 and Bob Tewksbury in 1993, had winning records. So, my best guess is losing Ponson is not going to make a significant difference for the Rangers.

3. I don't think "protecting" Hamilton's sobriety was a major issue for the Rangers, if it was an issue at all. But, if the club thought Ponson's acting out was alcohol-related, and they thought he wasn't going to have a major impact on the team one way or another, it only makes sense that the club would be better served by eliminating the possibility of potential temptation for Hamilton from the clubhouse.

4. No. No. No. And no. If the Rangers get a fringe organizational player for Ponson, they'll be fortunate. You can't expect to brand a guy as a cancer in the clubhouse and use him in a trade for a useful piece – unless you are trading him for somebody that another team branded a cancer.

• • •

Q: In years past, would Scott Feldman have been promoted as Colby Lewis was? The guy has really come out of nowhere and pitched well.

Fai Mao, Hong Kong

GRANT: Not sure, I completely understand the question. Colby Lewis was the Rangers' top pick in the 1999 draft (38th overall) and considered the top pitching prospect in the system in 2001 and 2002. He didn't come out of nowhere. He faded to nowhere due to command issues and injuries.

Feldman was neither a top draft choice (30th round in 2003) or a top prospect. He was a funky sidearm reliever who threw strikes, but was simply a borderline major leaguer until his arm angle was changed late last year and it was determined he had a fastball that naturally cut in on left-handed hitters. It made him a far more effective pitcher.

I don't see many similarities between Feldman and Lews except that they both grew up in California and both are right-handed.

• • •

Q: My question is this: while I'm sure it would be prohibitively expensive (and probably impractical) to install a traditional retractable roof on Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, what is the likelihood that the Rangers management might look into installing something like the Rays' "sail and mast" design?

Richard, St. Pete

GRANT: The club has investigated retrofitting Rangers Ballpark with a retractable roof, but my understanding is the physical plant design makes it prohibitively expensive to add air-conditioning to the park. And just putting a roof over that thing without proper ventilation would simply turn it into human popcorn maker.

My understanding is that the park in St. Pete is to be built on the water with the possibility of having gulf breezes helping to ventilate the stadium and cool fans. If I've got the situations right, the device in St. Pete would be more about protecting fans from rain; a roof in Arlington is more necessary to protect fans from heat. A whole secondary set of expenses is involved.

• • •

Q: How many Rangers are going to the All-Star Game in New York?

GRANT: I expect Josh Hamilton will be voted in as a starter. After that, it is a complete wild card. Milton Bradley (as DH) and Ian Kinsler both deserve to go, and Michael Young at least deserves consideration, but they are subject to the voting whimsy of fans and players. If they don't get in on the fan vote, their best hope is to be the top vote getter (or second place, if the player ahead of them was elected as a starter) at their position in the player voting.

If they aren't voted in by either of those methods, the manager could still name them to the team, but most of the manager's picks these days are committed to teams that don't have reps already in the game via the first two methods. Manager Terry Francona may have his hands full coming up with reps for Baltimore, Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City.

• • •

Q: Just got finished watching the Rays series and was wondering why Jarrod Saltalamacchia was catching when he can't seem to throw out a turtle?

Kevin Roebuck, Indian Rocks Beach, Fla.

GRANT: Since coming to the Rangers, Saltalamacchia has thrown out just two of 37 baserunners (5.4 percent). Counting his time with Atlanta, he's thrown out just 11.1 percent. It's a problem.

There is no doubt in my mind that right now Gerald Laird is a better major league catcher than Saltalamacchia. But, at the same time, the club's record (going into Tuesday) was 25-17 since Saltalamacchia was called up. As long as that record stays well above .500, the Rangers aren't going to concern themselves so much with who the better catcher might be. They'll be more focused on the fact that with both of them, they seem to play like a better team.

• • •

Q: What's the probable timeline before we would see Justin Smoak in Arlington, assuming he is signed to a contract by the Rangers?

GRANT: It's just a guessing game for a number of reasons, but let's just say he signs relatively quickly and goes to Bakersfield this season. My guess at a timeline: At Bakersfield through next June. At Frisco from June of 2009 through June 2010. At Oklahoma from June 2010 to August 2011. Let's say he makes the big league roster for the stretch drive in 2011 (well, if we are going to take a guess, we might as well suggest the Rangers are doing well come 2011).

How Chris Davis performs – whether good or bad – could eventually impact how fast Smoak moves. But that's not an issue in the short-term.

• • •

Q: I remember that last June Kameron Loe pitched an excellent game in Pittsburgh as a starter and that the Rangers' relatively strong finish to the 2007 season more or less began that night.

You have made the point several times that he does not seem to have the stuff to successfully go through a lineup more than once, but apparently in that one game against the Pirates he did. What do you think has happened since then that has caused him to regress from promising starter to the I-35 shuttle between Arlington and here as an ineffective reliever in the major leagues?

Mark Lovelace, Oklahoma City

GRANT: Every once in a while, Mark, a guy is going to have his absolute best stuff. Or the opponent lineup is going to be weak. Or maybe it's a combination of both. Loe began a run of five solid starts that night against Pittsburgh, which was perhaps the worst team in the NL. His elbow started acting up after about a month, and his performance tailed off before he eventually went to the DL. He's dealt with elbow soreness in each of the last two years, and there is some thought his elbow could be a long-term problem waiting to happen.

As for performance, he's just never been able to stay either healthy enough or consistent enough to deliver a full solid season for the Rangers. As a starter, he's 13-19 with a 5.08 ERA for his career. In relief: 6-4 with a 3.90 ERA. Both the batting average and on-base percentage he allows opponents are significantly lower as a reliever. And finally, there is this: His opponents' batting average the first time through a lineup is .268; thereafter it is .308. The numbers just all scream that if there is a role for him, it's as a middle reliever.

As for what happened, certainly the injury played a part. The second issue: Sooner or later, players/pitchers establish what they are. In Loe's case, that appears to be what has happened.

• • •

Q: With the sudden need or perceived need for quality relief pitchers, is Thomas Diamond an option after the All-Star break?

The Rangers do not need to be a buyer at the All-Star break regardless of what happens. I still believe that Diamond will be a tremendous pitcher in the bigs, I just think it will be in the eighth or ninth innings. I believe that his progress on the mound and his health are paramount, but I still want him in Arlington in August. Is that realistic?

Cliff, Fort Worth

GRANT: In his first four starts since being coming back from Tommy John surgery, Diamond has compiled a 6.88 ERA while walking 13 at Double-A Frisco. Certainly, those numbers aren't going to merit a callup. But I think the numbers to look at in Diamond's case will be July and August. If he makes steady progress, I could very easily see him being a September callup even if the numbers aren't overwhelming. After coming back from surgery, Diamond could use a September callup as something of a reward and as a motivational tool. If he comes up here, it would either be for a couple of starts (if the team is out of the race) or mop-up relief roles.

While I think there is a strong possibility he ends up as a late-inning reliever, I don't think the Rangers would make that switch with him until after this season at the earliest.

• • •

Q: Max Ramirez, Wilmer Font and Joaquin Arias for Zach Greinke? What do you think?

PJD

GRANT: Think that's an awful lot to give up for somebody who can be a free agent after the 2009 season. If the Rangers were in the thick of the playoff race at the trading deadline this year, it might be something you'd at least have to think about. But I don't see that happening, and adding Greinke for this year would be meaningless. I'd much rather wait until 2009 and potentially pursue him as a free agent. He'd only be 26 at that point.

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