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Stars need to be careful with Lehtonen

08:46 PM CST on Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Column by MIKE HEIKA / The Dallas Morning News | mheika@dallasnews.com

Mike Heika

At some point this month, the Stars could slip out of the playoff race and will have to start looking to next season.

If they get to that spot quickly, let me suggest that they still need to take a cautious approach with Kari Lehtonen. Yes, the 26-year-old goalie needs games and ice time, but he also needs to realize how much work he has to do.

In addition to the two back surgeries he had in the off-season, Lehtonen also has to understand how much physical conditioning can be his friend. Whether the Thrashers didn't push this agenda much when he was in Atlanta or whether he was not that open to it, conditioning has not been a strength in his career.

But a change of teams can do a lot to change that. You see, Lehtonen isn't the second overall pick to the Stars. He isn't the savior of the franchise. He doesn't have to be protected or coddled. He is basically a bit of a project who has one year to prove to the Stars that he can become their No. 1 goalie. If he doesn't show signs of being a top-notch player in that span, the Stars probably will look in a different direction. Heck, they might look in a different direction this summer just to hedge their bet.

So they have a very willing player right now, and they need to use game time both judiciously and as a carrot for Lehtonen. He wants it right now, but he's likely going to have to earn it.

We'll see how the Stars handle this going forward.

STARS Q&A

Q: I have always thought very highly of Jere Lehtinen and have enjoyed watching him play. He has been a solid, reliable guy for us in both good and bad times. However, I cannot see us keeping him for another injury-plagued year, He seems to always be sick or injured and even though he does provide veteran experience and leadership, I doubt he can continue being effective for us.

I am afraid if they do re-sign him, which I don't believe they will, he will only take away minutes from a younger player that could really benefit from the extended playing time.

How do you handle a situation like this? I know there are less than 20 games left in the season so perhaps we enjoy what we can of him right now and move on without him this summer. When does a player know when it is time to hang it up, and who decides? The player or management? What's gonna happen with Modano? Would he be willing to accept a one-year minimum contract just to continue playing?

Also, if Zubov would have not signed a contract to play in Russia do you believe we would be in the position we are in now? How would having him for one more year helped or hurt the team? Also, how is he doing in the Russian league?

Best, Doug

HEIKA: Hey Doug, I think the Stars probably don't re-sign Lehtinen. He has been good when he's healthy and he doesn't cost much. But at some point, you have to turn the page.

I really do think Joe Nieuwendyk will turn the page this summer on several players like Lehtinen, Mike Modano and Marty Turco.

As for Zubov, he didn't sign with any other team in the NHL and found a way to alienate the Russian Olympic people, so I don't think it was easy to negotiate with him in the summer. I do think the Stars would have been better this year, but maybe that would have covered up the need to make more changes. In addition, he would have wanted a two-year deal, so you would have had him for next year, as well.

It's a hard question. I like Zubov a lot, but it just might be time to turn a lot of pages for the Stars.

• • • 

Q: This past (Washington) game shows exactly why we can't win more than we do, and that is our defense is non-existent up front. Although we won it took Marty standing on his head to get it done. It is a shame you have some guys killing themselves out there to win and our D core is young and small for the most part and get pushed out of position too often. I know it is a different NHL than it used to be but, folks are still buzzing our net and creating interference with no fear of retribution. The new high-scoring NHL hasn't reached Dallas so could it be our offensive guys are taxed from trying to focus on defense and ownership has no money to upgrade? Joe's comments about sticking with our young group and making no moves tells me, as a fan, our hands are tied and maybe next year we can upgrade. You lose the casual fan when you are not winning so that drives down revenue from games ticket sales which even further puts you behind the eight ball. I know Phoenix is doing it cash strapped but, they are the exception. I am a huge fan win or lose and have been since Day 1 but even I get frustrated.

Mike F.

HEIKA: Hey Mike, I think you have a pretty good take on things. I think the Stars are going to have trouble getting this system to really work until Joe Nieuwendyk has the chance to use some money and bring in the players he thinks will work.

Phoenix has been down for a while, so it has had a lot of time to stock the cupboard for this rebuild, and Dave Tippett was the right coach at the right time. He was asking players to grasp a simple system that would help them compete. The Stars are trying to change to a system that they hope will help make them one of the better teams in the league.

It will take some time.

• • • 

Q: Much has been said about Marc Crawford's aggressive system with D-men joining the rush. However, the Stars have utilized a more stay-at-home, defensive minded system since they arrived here from Minnesota. And since they have utilized that style for so long, they have drafted and signed players who are used to playing that style. Has this hindered the progress of Crawford's system?

Thanks, Jim B.

HEIKA: Yes, Jim, I think so. Rick Wilson was an assistant coach who pushed responsibility to the point he scared the defensemen.

Trevor Daley, in particular, has been greatly affected by that training. And players like Mark Fistric and Nicklas Grossman fit the old style to a tee.

So now these players do have to change a lot of what they have done in the past.

The Stars have to first find the right mix of defensemen and then teach them how to play this system. My guess is Philip Larsen will come over from Europe next season to add a lot of skill. He will also be able to be trained completely under the new system. And then the Stars will have to see if they want to change any of the other bodies back there to see if they can find player more comfortable in this style of play.

• • • 

Q: Yikes – what a way to start the season-defining road trip!

What do you make of this – the Stars' top three point producers of Brad Richards, James Neal and Loui Eriksson are a collective -34 on the plus/minus, and throw in Steve Ott with his -16, and you've got four of your top six just stinking it up at even strength.

It seems everyone has focused on the weakness of the Stars – goaltending and defense (and they are a problem) – but I'm wondering about the defensive effectiveness of the forwards playing two-way hockey. It makes me wonder, what good is our top line if they have given up 34 more goals at even strength? Are they as good as we think they are?

This is a very valid question, that ties into the "Sabermetrics of hockey." Baseball is known for its statistics, Moneyball and now really detailed analysis of how much a player can impact a game by playing good defense. What, in your opinion, are the best metrics to analyze hockey players and their value? Is the plus/minus a tell-all?

It does not appear the Stars have the players to play the system Crawford and Joe want. Playing the Tippett/Hitchcock defense-first philosophy would probably have this group in the playoffs, though there is lot of room for improvement. It will be a very different roster come September, likely minus Modano, Lehtinen and Turco, the core of the team the past nine years or so.

Best regards, Bob

HEIKA: Hey Bob, I think it's more than just Sabremetrics, I think it speaks to how difficult this system is to run and how easy that line has been to score against on the road.

That's where most of the minuses have been accrued.

Bottom line, the trio of top-line players is not good defensively, and they are especially not good when they have to play defense against the other team's best players. What's more, they tend to cheat toward the offensive end when their team is down.

That, in my mind, is what is responsible for the high minus total.

It's something Marc Crawford has tried to address by breaking up that line on the road, and that might have to be the answer for now. I just don't know if Neal and Richards will ever be great defensive forwards, and this system exposes that.

You are right, there is a lot of transition remaining for this team.

• • • 

Q: Do you think it's time to rehire Ken Hitchcock for next year? Here's my reasoning. We have a relatively young team with lots of talent and future potential. Although Morrow is harder on himself than anyone, he does not rule the team the way Hatcher did. Other Stars were afraid of him when they screwed up. A young team like this needs a taskmaster, not a buddy, at the helm to force them to grow. Hitchcock would bring the kind of ruthless "accept nothing less than a Cup" attitude instead of the "at least we're not as bad as Toronto" attitude we've had for years.

Thanks, Steve

HEIKA: While I like Hitchcock and think he would be an excellent coach wherever he ends up, I just don't think he is the right fit with Joe Nieuwendyk. I think Joe likes what Marc Crawford is doing and believes that they will be better as they move forward.

• • • 

Q: I'm sure you heard many a crazy rumor leading into yesterday, but a few hours before the deadline, I heard that the Stars were talking to Vancouver about Schneider and that Brunnstrom may have been involved. Did you hear anything about this? I can only imagine this would've worked if another team were involved, like Philadelphia or Chicago, to move Turco and something else going Vancouver's way. I guess it must have fallen through. I just wanted to know if there was any truth to it at all.

Timm J.

HEIKA: Hey Timm, I'm not sure about all of the talk, but I know that the Stars are still interested in Cory Schneider. I have heard that the Canucks are asking for Jamie Benn, though, and that will slow down the talks. Vancouver does not have to trade Schneider right now, so it will ask for a king's ransom. Therefore, it could be a while before they can work something out.

Brunnstrom was very available at the trade deadline and all the Stars needed in return was a draft pick. However, teams that were interested were not able to fit in the $2.25 million cap hit he has because of bonuses that he is not going to obtain. While Brunnstrom will only make about $900,000 this year, he still carries a cap hit that is too high for many teams. I believe the Stars will qualify him as an RFA at under $1 million in the summer (with no bonuses), and then he will become a more tradeable commodity.

Turco's salary also was a problem. Teams like Philadelphia or Chicago would have had to have moved salary to fit Turco ($5.4 million in salary, $5.7 million in cap hit) into their structure. Yes, they only had to get one-quarter of those numbers in, but those teams are really hard against the cap.

Plus, with Lehtonen still trying to work slowly back in, Joe Nieuwendyk felt keeping Turco was the best decision.

• • • 

Q: Hey Mike I was wondering if you knew anything about that new camera they are using at AAC. Is that an NHL-wide thing or just here in Dallas? I really like that camera and it really puts you into the action. I know we will get to see more of it as I'm sure it's all pretty new to the TV guys running the show. During that St. Louis stinker of a game, it was within the opening minute or so of the third, they used that camera to follow the play up the ice and it was really neat. I was a fan of the dasher cam, but it was just too stationary, this captures the speed and puts the fan right on the ice.

Big John in PHX

HEIKA: The company that has designed and built these cameras is hoping to sell them to FSSW or the Stars or the Mavericks. They offered to give them a free trial for two games, and that is now over. The Stars are considering it for next season, but the cost is pretty high.

We'll see how the Stars and Mavericks react. I think both would have to be on board.

But any positive feedback for them is a good thing.

• • • 

Q: When Turco got yanked, I noticed he didn't come back to the bench and was wondering what was up. That is a very selfish act on his part, and I don't even remember Ed Belfour doing that. You win or lose as a team. If you get yanked, you stay on the bench and support your teammates. I could understand him leaving the bench if one of the players or coaches said to him "way to go sieve" but I sincerely doubt that happened.

Jeff T.

HEIKA: I'd be careful about comparing Turco to Belfour.

Turco has never done anything like what he did when he did not return to the bench. That's the first time he has done anything questionable.

Belfour left the bench after being pulled in Vancouver, went into the locker room and tore it up, destroying a TV and VCR with his stick. Needless to say, he did not return to the bench in that one. Belfour got mad at Ken Hitchcock at a morning skate in Boston, took a cab to the airport and flew back to Dallas – the day of a game! Turco has always been a good teammate. He was just upset in this one.

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