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Anyone who reads this offering with any regularity knows that in March, I gave the Stars 0 percent chance of beating the Detroit Red Wings in the playoffs this season. Today, I give them a 49 percent chance. That's not enough for some of you, but it's an amazing transformation in my eyes. I would not at all be surprised if the Stars beat the Red Wings. They have earned the right to be called near-equal competitors with the team that posted the best regular-season record in the NHL and dominated the league, statistically. And that's pretty impressive. Of course, the fact the Red Wings have the best home record in hockey and have home ice in the series, have three players –Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg – who will probably be first- or second-team All-Stars, and have an undefeated goalie as their main playoff weakness makes it difficult for me to pick against them in a seven-game series against the Stars. I will, in fact, predict a win in seven games for the host Red Wings. But, in my mind, I believe the Stars could pull this upset ... and here's why: Had Dallas beaten San Jose in four or five games, I would have said they probably would have come into the Detroit series with decent momentum and too much time to think about the Wings (and predicted a quick loss). Had Dallas had to fight off the Sharks in seven games, I would have said that Dallas would have been emotionally spent and would have had nothing left for the Wings (and predicted a quick loss). But the fact Dallas won a titanic four-overtime game to close out the Sharks in Game 6 is the perfect formula for getting the Stars ready to face the Red Wings. It gives Turco a huge shot of confidence that he can do anything, including bat back the demons of Joe Louis Arena. It shook all of the rust off of defenseman Sergei Zubov, who played the last three periods at his smooth calm best. And it allows the Stars just enough time to rest, and yet not enough time to lose momentum before Thursday's Game 1. If you believe in the cosmic forces that shape the universe, you can go back to those two disallowed goals in Game 5 and see something other-worldly taking place. They were heart-wrenching for the Stars and their fans. However, in retrospect, they made the Stars a better team. Those two calls provided the adversity that allowed Dallas to fight back and gain the strength to survive Game 6. It's a far-fetched fairy tale way of looking at things ... but it's also a theory that I'm starting to believe. Of course, I've couched this enough now that I'm pretty much picking both teams to win, but that's the thinking behind it. Q: What is going on with Matt Niskanen? Is he hurt? Russ HEIKA: Hey Russ, I think the Stars were a little scrambly on the back end when they had seven defensemen, so they made the decision to go back to the normal six. Niskanen got one game as a member of that six, and Mark Fistric got one game. And right now, Fistric is simply the better defenseman. He is practicing with Trevor Daley on the third pair, while Niskanen is practicing on the fourth pair as a potential healthy scratch with Dan Jancevski. I think Niskanen can play if they need him, but I think Fistric has beaten him out fair and square. The two are very different defensemen. Niskanen is a skilled player with big upside, but I think he's thinking too much right now. If you take a second to look at your options, you're in trouble in the playoffs. Fistric trusts his instincts, makes simple, safe plays and is a better defensive defenseman. Plus, he fits well with Daley right now. Q: Can you give us an update on Stu Barnes and Philippe Boucher? Also, if Boucher is healthy for this series, what do you do? The kids – especially Fistric and Nicklas Grossman, have played so well that I'd hate to scratch one for Boucher, but I think we all know that this series is going to be at another level and Boucher's experience may get him in the lineup. Any thoughts? Brian S. HEIKA: Hey Brian, both are in the dreaded "day to day" category, although I believe Barnes is closer to returning than Boucher. Both are listed as "doubtful" for Game 1 Thursday. In my mind, you get Barnes back in as quickly as possible. He has been great on the checking line with Steve Ott and Mike Modano, and his presence allows the lines to fit together better. Boucher is a more difficult question. The Stars are seeking rhythm for their defense pairs, and are starting to find it. I think you have to give Boucher a chance to help the team, but you do wonder if the series against Detroit will be too rich for Boucher to just jump right in. I guess we'll see. Q: I was wondering if you have gotten any e-mails concerning the Western Conference finals in regards to the fact that there will be no local television broadcast of this series? I am a die-hard Stars fan, and I can't believe there is not going to be any local broadcast of this series. I mean, not everyone has Versus, because the cable and satellite companies refuse to put it on their basic core packages. So what are Stars fan going to do? As a Stars fan, I am very upset with the NHL, as well as the Dallas Stars, because they are not making sure that their fans are going to get to see this series or the Finals if the Stars make it past the Red Wings. If you could share some insight on how this all works, I would greatly appreciate. Brandon Aldridge HEIKA: The NHL negotiates a national television contract every year, and they decided to go with Versus a couple of years back because ESPN was not really that excited about televising hockey. You can't really blame ESPN, as poker gets much better ratings than hockey and costs a lot less to produce. Anyway, Versus pays about $60 million to the NHL each season, so it wants to make that money back. Thus, it gets exclusive rights to the conference finals and Stanley Cup Finals (with NBC, of course), and it uses those rights to get you to subscribe to Versus. It's a tough thing, but that is how the business of sports sometimes works. The NBA is on ESPN and TNT, so the NBA expects fans to demand TNT on their packages. The NHL wants fans to do the same thing with Versus. Q: How do the Stars keep going during a long overtime game like against San Jose? Do they drink a lot of water and Gatorade? Do they get ready for the next game by just resting or do the coaches have them do certain things to get their energy back? Megan HEIKA: The Stars ate fruit (lots of bananas, I'm told), energy bars and tons of sports drinks to keep going during the game. Brenden Morrow had a great line where he said you eat just enough to get you through the next 20 minutes. However, since most players eat their pregame meal around 1 p.m., many had not eaten for 12-13 hours when the game was over. I'm told they scarfed after the game – pizza, sandwiches, burgers, anything they could get their hands on. Most then slept the next day until noon or 1 p.m. and used the next two days to try to get back on a normal schedule. They were back to normal practice on Wednesday. Q: Dude – "prescient" – I thought the writers in the sports page weren't allowed to use words exceeding a 50-cent value. May I trouble you for the definition? Bill K. in Coppell HEIKA Hey Bill, sorry about that, I think I caught that on an episode of Medium. Here's the definition: Prescient: Knowing in advance; having or showing knowledge of actions or events before they take place. Q: I think we need Stu Barnes back. He is missed in the game. Also, why did B.J Crombeen only play 1:37 in a seven-period game? What was Tippett's reasoning behind that? If they playoffs ended today, who would you pick for the Conn Smythe? Drew J. in Dallas HEIKA: I agree with you on Barnes. He is very much missed, because he can go on the checking line with Mike Modano and Steve Ott, and that allows the other lines to fall together. Stars coach Dave Tippett was shuffling forwards in Game 7 and decided it was best for him to try to keep rotating players into the game with centers Mike Modano, Mike Ribeiro and Brad Richards. Toby Petersen moved to a wing in Crombeen's place, and the Stars had some very nice energy, despite, the strange rotation of the lines. Crombeen just happened to be the odd-man out. I thought it actually worked pretty well. If the playoffs ended today, I'd have to give the Conn Smythe to Johan Franzen – 11 goals for Detroit in 10 games, including four game-winners. That's amazing. Q: Isn't it great the Stars made it to the Western Conference finals to face the Red Wings? It should be a good series, maybe even go seven games. I'm hoping you guys continue the trend by picking the opponents and not the Stars. The last two series, you guys had Dallas losing in six games and they went on to win both series in six games. It might sound a little crazy, and maybe I'm superstitious, but pick the Red Wings and maybe that trend will continue. Emilio S. in Dallas HEIKA: Thanks Emilio. Officially, I picked the Stars last round, but I know where you're coming from. The Stars seem to play better when everyone picks against them. That being the case, I have cursed the Red Wings with my selection that they will emerge victorious. Q: Boy, NHL management is about to prove, once again, how bad they are at keeping fans interested in the game. Here we are, into the conference finals, and there are a whole lot of Stars fans that will not be able to watch any of the games, due the atrocious television deal they made after the strike/lockout. Oh, Versus is available, for a price. It would be smarter for the league to give the games away for free than have this set-up. Mark in Arlington HEIKA: Should the league just try to give away its product on free TV? Maybe. It's certainly something that could be debated. But then they risk getting nothing for their product for six or seven months just to be sure they have a maximum audience for the playoffs (when people finally get excited). I had another e-mailer who said that boxing used to be a huge sport when it was on public television, and that it has become a niche sport because of pay-per-view. I understand that analogy. There are some who have suggested the NHL should pay network television to display the game. That's an interesting theory, and one that actually has some merit to it. Q: The likely Stanley Cup winner in 2008 will be Detroit or Pittsburgh. They are the only teams left who finished in the top seven in points in the regular season. Detroit was first and Pittsburgh fourth. (Dallas was eighth and Philadelphia 11th). No club has ever won the Stanley Cup who finished lower than seventh overall in points in a FULL regular NHL season. In recent years, the trend is that a team must finish in the top five in overall points to be a Cup winner. Norm Graham, Oakville, Ontario HEIKA: So that means the Stars still have a chance to at least get to the Stanley Cup Finals (if Pittsburgh advances). Hmmm, I think they'd take that. Q: Is it just me or does it seem like the NHL has gone the way of the NBA (i.e. making calls to keep a series/game close)? I thought there was no way they would overturn Morrow's first disallowed goal in Game 5 ... but they did. Also, in Game 6, they reviewed rather quickly the non-goal of Brad Richards. I thought the puck may have been over the line. The top angle was the best angle to see the play, but where the camera was located was not directly over the goal line, so it made it appear that Evgeni Nabokov's glove wasn't that far over the line when in actuality it was probably much further over the line than the camera angle indicated. Brian Jensen HEIKA: Hey Brian, I don't think the NHL gets the calls right all of the time, but I think it's more just accidental than it is planned. I don't buy into the conspiracy theory. Now, do the refs whistle "make-up calls" and try to keep the penalties even? Absolutely, and that tends to make series go longer. But I don't think they sit up Toronto and try to stretch things out. I just think they make mistakes sometimes. Dallas Stars have a chance, which is saying something
01:31 AM CDT on Thursday, May 8, 2008