If home prices fall 5 percent, 10 percent or even 15 percent in the current downturn – and that's not likely – most North Texans will still have plenty of equity in their houses.

Unless you've recently bought or are planning to sell, all the fuss about the housing market shakeout is so much blather.

During the depths of the last Dallas real estate depression, I decided to buy a house.

It was 1987, and housing prices had been falling in North Texas for two years.

The "Price Reduced" yard signs had been replaced with newer ones that said "Make Offer."

Back then, I thought interest rates were a bargain at 10 percent. That's right, 10 percent.

Today, 10 percent interest rates would be seen as a death sentence for the housing market. But in the early 1980s, rates had been much higher and were finally down to a manageable rate.

So, armed with a mortgage approval and copies of the old MLS books, I set off to find someplace to live.

There were so many houses for sale east of North Central Expressway in Dallas that I spent almost three months looking at properties. I remember my real estate agents asking, "Are you ever going to make up your mind?"

I was in no hurry. Home prices were still declining, and my Oak Lawn rental was a block from the Mansion on Turtle Creek bar and restaurant. Talk about amenities.

I finally found a partly restored craftsman bungalow I could live with and persuaded the seller to take a big haircut.

My purchase price was more than 20 percent below the tax appraisal.

I thought I'd timed my buy perfectly.

Little did I know that the value of my house would fall an additional 10 percent during the next few years before finally bottoming out.

Who knew?

I guess I should have. Real estate markets take years to overheat, and the cool-down can last even longer.

As it turned out, I did just fine with my little investment in 1920s lumber and plaster. The same house is worth two and a half times what I paid for it 20 years ago. Most of that's lot value.

Truth is, our home market is a tortoise. Housing values in North Texas have seen only slight increases over the last five years – less than 20 percent, while U.S. values rabbited up at double that rate.

In 2008's first quarter, pre-owned home sales were down 18 percent in North Texas compared with the same period last year, but median prices were down only 1 percent.

Since 2004, the median price has only gone up, from $138,200 to $150,000.

High numbers of local foreclosures and the national economic downturn may cause short-term home price declines, but the Dallas housing outlook remains favorable.

A strong local job market and good demographics should keep demand for housing high. Lower prices will help, too.

Is it a good time to buy a house?

Sure, if you need one. But if you're a speculator or you hope to sell your current house for a killing and buy new digs on the cheap, your timing may be off.

As hard as it was to call the top of the market, it can be even trickier to find the bottom.DALLASTHE TORTOISE