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Electricity prices likely to rise, experts say

04:35 PM CST on Thursday, February 14, 2008

By ELIZABETH SOUDER / The Dallas Morning News
esouder@dallasnews.com

HOUSTON — Energy Future Holdings Chairman Donald Evans agreed with power experts on Thursday that electricity prices are bound to rise.

Energy Future Holdings Chairman Donald Evans
Bloomberg News
"I don’t see pricing going down anytime in the near future," Energy Future Holdings Chairman Donald Evans said Thursday.

“I don’t see pricing going down anytime in the near future,” Mr. Evans said during a panel discussion at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference. “So I think there will be adequate incentive for people to look very hard at this area” of energy efficiency.

Experts at the conference said power prices will likely rise because it’s becoming more expensive to build power plants to meet growing demand, and because cutting carbon dioxide emissions will be costly.

So a number of companies, including Energy Future Holdings, are developing products and services to help consumers conserve.

The question is, how can a power company make more money by encouraging customers to use less of its product?

When asked, Mr. Evans didn’t explain his business strategy, but said: “Asking Texans to use less electricity is the right thing to do, and that’s why we’re doing it.”

Other power executives say offering efficiency services draws more customers. Plus, some companies might charge for such services, creating a new revenue stream.

Experts at the conference offered a list of factors boosting electricity prices.

“Just about all signs point to higher power prices for many years to come,” said Jone-Lin Wang, a power expert with CERA.

She said the U.S. must build at least 200 gigawatts of power generation capacity during the next 15 years, plus power lines, just to keep the lights on. One of Energy Future Holding’s massive new coal plants amounts to about 800 megawatts of capacity, not even one full gigawatt.

And building those plants is becoming more expensive. CERA released a study on Thursday that shows costs to build new power plants rose 27 percent in the last 12 months, and 19 percent in just the last six months.

Part of the problem is the sagging exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. American companies shut down their facilities to make major nuclear and coal plant parts. Chunks of the new plants must be imported from Japan or France.

Plus, most observers expect the U.S. Congress to pass legislation soon to cap carbon dioxide emissions. Coal plant operators would have to either install expensive emissions equipment or buy credits for their emissions.

These costs will have to be borne by consumers to keep the power industry afloat, Ms. Wang said.

Retail electricity companies see a business opportunity here. Many are planning to help consumers reduce their electricity usage, either for a fee, or just to attract new customers.

These services range from advising customers on making their homes more efficiency, with better insulation or new appliances, to installing high-tech electricity meters that can regulate usage at the home.

In past decades state regulators have funded some efficiency projects, by paying for upgrades or reminding people to turn the lights off. Some executives say this approach is all wrong.

James Rogers, chief executive of Duke Energy Corp., said most people don’t think about their utility bills all the time.

“It’s back of mind. We spend a lot of money trying to make it front of mind, and that’s a failed approach,” he said.

He’d prefer to see regulators come up with a way to pay utilities for saving a kilowatt of power, rather than just for producing a kilowatt of power.

Deryk King, chief executive of electricity retailer Direct Energy, doesn’t want regulators involved in the process at all. He’d prefer to see electricity prices reflect the true, high cost of producing clean power, and allow private companies to offer products and services to help consumers deal with it.

In that way, the higher prices might goad people to conserve.

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