Like every other digital gizmo, projectors are getting smaller.

But the next leap in projector tinyness might surprise even the most jaded techno-observer: They're about to disappear entirely.

Dallas-based Texas Instruments Inc. and a handful of other companies that specialize in "pico" projectors already are integrating their machines directly into cellphones, cameras, digital music players and other devices. And that trickle will turn into a flood starting next year.

The goal is to take what's now a relatively specialized technology and make it, over the next decade or so, as mainstream as cellphone cameras became in the last decade.

"There are a lot of people out there pushing this technology," said Matthew Brennesholtz, senior analyst with market research firm Insight Media. "Really, the big unknown is how the consumer will accept it."

Pico projectors hit the market more than a year ago, and the cellphone- and paperback-size devices now on the market provide decent image quality.

As stand-alone units, they're failing to take off with mainstream gadget enthusiasts, because buying a pico projector means adding one more gadget to many consumers' already sizable mobile arsenals.

But new products from Nikon and Samsung show what the technology could soon be.

Nikon recently launched its Coolpix S1000pj digital camera, with a proprietary built-in projector, for $429. Samsung, using TI's digital light processing technology, introduced its W7900 smart phone with a built-in projector in South Korea several months ago for about $500.

In a demonstration at TI's Plano offices, the W7900 put on a stunning display, sharply projecting a TV news clip on a wall, notebook and palm of a hand.

TI is rolling out its DLP mobile projector technology in a variety of stand-alone devices, including the new 12.8-ounce M109S from Dell Inc., which would fit in a lunchbox with room to spare, and the 4-ounce Pico PK101 from Optoma Technology Inc.

But projectors integrated into other devices are clearly what will take pico from an interesting technology to a mass-market success.

Frank Moizio, TI's manager of the emerging markets business for DLP products, declines to offer a precise estimate for the potential market size of pico projectors. But he's very aware of how many mobile devices could eventually house a DLP-based pico projector inside.

"On a unit basis, there's no denying that there [are] a lot of mobile devices out there, over 1 billion phones a year," he said. "Add in media players and cameras, it's close to 1.4 billion. The numbers are extraordinarily large."

"We're one of the top two largest manufacturers of projector chips in the world," Moizio said. "That puts us in a very good position to leverage into this space."

TI isn't the only company racing to corner the pico market. Two of its biggest competitors in pico projector technology are Microvision Inc. and Micron Technology Inc.

While TI might seem like a slam-dunk winner with its well-established DLP systems, Insight Media's Brennesholtz said the company's technology isn't perfected for pico applications. He said TI needs to lower the costs and power consumption of its pico displays.

Power consumption is particularly critical, Brennesholtz said, because when it comes to a cellphone or other mobile device, there's a limited amount of power – say, 1.5 watts – that can be diverted to a projector to maintain decent overall battery life.

If the display itself consumes a larger percentage of that limited power to create the image, then there's less power available for the lighting system to project the image on a wall or other surface.

Photos by SONYA N. HEBERT/DMN

Frank Moizio, manager of the emerging markets business for DLP products at Texas Instruments, stands near projections from handheld devices that use the DLP 'pico projector' chip. TI is racing firms like Microvision and Micron Technology to corner the pico market.

Lighting and brightness levels are other hurdles for pico display makers to overcome.

For example, 3M's new standalone MPro120, which uses a technology called liquid crystal on silicon, is rated for 12 lumens of brightness, typical of most current pico projectors.

But experts say something closer to 40 or 50 lumens is needed to generate a sharp 40-inch image.

Brennesholtz said TI and other pico display makers should be able to hit that mark in four or five years.

Even then, though, he still doesn't think integrated pico projectors will be pervasive.

"I've talked to people who are saying 1 billion pico projectors a year by 2015, but those are people trying to get money out of venture capitalists," he said. "When you start to talk 100 million a year, you can see that maybe by 2015 or 2016."

Consumers probably won't have to pay much more for projector phones than they do for smart phones now, because carriers are reluctant to charge more than $200 or $300 for even cutting-edge devices. But that also means it might take longer for projectors to filter down to lower-margin handsets.

One wild card in the adoption curve could be Apple Inc.

The maker of the massively successful iPhone has not even hinted at a model with a built-in projector, and analysts say projector phones are coming regardless of what the company does.

But Apple increasingly sets the pace for mobile innovation, and TI and others are clearly pitching their technologies to Apple.

Apple now sells the DLP-based PK101 in its stores.

Even at the more modest pace Brennesholtz envisions, pico projector integration won't be far behind the curve set by camera phones, which started to take off around 2000 and are just now approaching 90 percent penetration.

TI is a believer and will push its pico technology at the annual Consumer Electronics Show in January.

"From the initial ... response we've seen to the technology, we could see a significant penetration over time," Moizio said.