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Leslie Berkman: Surviving the bubble's burst in Riverside, California

09:30 AM CDT on Friday, May 9, 2008

A couple of years ago, it seemed Inland Southern California housing prices had nowhere to go but up. Homeowners gasped and thanked their lucky stars as each month they grew richer.

To tap their newfound wealth, many borrowed against their family homes to buy European vacations, boats and luxury automobiles.

They took equity loans to buy glitzy kitchens and bathrooms worthy of the castle-like values. Drunk with the promise of easy riches, weekend investors bought second and third houses, figuring they could never have too much of a good thing.

If only they could have foreseen the foreclosure bus tours and auctions now attracting bargain hunters.

Lenders have seized homes in record numbers from delinquent borrowers. Thousands of homeowners hang on to houses worth less than what they owe.

Even though Southern California is known for the roller coaster rides of its housing market, the most recent up cycle outlasted the expectations of seasoned homebuilders and economists.

Lenders and builders lauded new loans that made it easy for blue-collar workers to buy executive houses.

Many buyers took adjustable-rate mortgages at ultra-low introductory interest rates and gambled that they could refinance or sell their houses before the rates rose.

Meanwhile, homebuilders lost interest in the entry-level houses that this region just east of Los Angeles was known for.

Million-dollar houses, with the requisite wine cellars, home theaters and meditation rooms, sprang up around golf courses.

Ultimately, new buyers were priced out of the market. Then, when risky mortgages went bad, lenders and investors quickly ended the easy financing that had fueled the long housing boom.

Now everyone is waiting for the bottom.

Home prices have dropped 30 percent since peaking in late 2006. In March, median prices had fallen to 2004 levels: $306,250 and $265,000, respectively, in neighboring Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Esmael Adibi, a Chapman University economist in Orange, Calif., predicts that the median home price could fall another 8 percent by 2009, just to put prices and incomes back into historic balance.

But disaster for some creates opportunity for others. Real estate offices report a recent surge of buyers who can find decent houses on the foreclosure market that won't cost much more a month than to rent.

So is it a good time to buy a house here?

Mark Lopez, a 41-year-old stay-at-home dad, said he and his wife Elizabeth, a 40-year-old medical office manager, think it is. The family sold its Perris, Calif., house in June 2006 and bought a more affordable house in Oregon in preparation for future retirement. But they lingered for a while in Perris, renting until their two high school children could graduate with their friends.

In December, Mr. Lopez said, he started scanning Perris real estate online and was astonished how far prices had fallen in the city about 15 miles south of Riverside. "I figured it would happen but not that fast," he said.

Now that affordability is much less of an issue, the family is staying in the town where they have roots. They are in escrow to buy a 2,000-square-foot home for $225,000 in Perris that's bigger and newer than the house they sold for $400,000.

It looks as though they timed their ride on the real estate roller coaster just about right.

RIVERSIDE

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