One in an occasional series

LUFKIN, Texas – Eugene Brookshire is a Christian conservative who intends to vote in next year's presidential election, even though none of the candidates have touched his soul.

"It's a shame we're going to be voting for the lesser of the two evils – or the 10 evils," he said.

And for evangelicals who gathered recently for the first in a series of national rallies on faith and politics, the message was clear: Republican losses in 2006 could be a harbinger of things to come unless the party re-energizes its most loyal bloc of voters.

Long the driving force behind Republican success, many Christian conservatives are disappointed over the GOP's failure to deliver on issues they care about and divided over the candidates and moral agenda that will animate them.

For that and other reasons, the conservative Christian movement faces a moment of political decision. Its ultimate champion, George W. Bush, is in the final stage of his presidency. The candidates to replace him have received a lackluster reaction from voters such as Mr. Brookshire. Democrats are starting to claim the mantle of faith in a different way. And many conservative evangelicals are beginning to question the movement's political priorities and focus instead on issues from the environment to terrorism.

"You certainly wouldn't want to write them off," said John Green, a scholar who studies the role of faith in politics. "However, there is a great deal of flux within these religious communities, a big debate over the agenda and some real unhappiness with the Republican Party."

Some even warn that if the party doesn't maintain its emphasis on social issues such as opposition to abortion and gay marriage, many traditional-value voters will stay home – or support a third-party challenger in 2008.

"We are looking at a referendum on whether religious conservatives will remain loyal to the GOP or whether they will break into pieces," said Deal Hudson, a conservative Catholic and head of the Washington-based Morley Institute for Church and Culture.

Without Christian conservatives, Ronald Reagan would not have been elected in 1980. They were instrumental in electing the Republican Congress in 1994 and twice helped provide the margin of victory for George W. Bush.

In 2004, white evangelicals made up 40 percent of President Bush's re-election vote. Driven by a conservative-values agenda and fears of terrorism, they turned out in big numbers in 2004 and broke 3-to-1 for Mr. Bush over Democratic Sen. John Kerry.

But the 2006 midterm elections served as a setback for the GOP, in part because these core voters were turned off by sex-and-ethics scandals.

Their unhappiness continues, bursting forth in polls and interviews about the GOP front-runners seeking the White House.

While former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets leeway from some evangelicals because of his focus on terrorism, his support of abortion rights troubles others.

"I would have real problems with Giuliani," said Teresa Kezan, a Christian conservative who attended the recent Lufkin rally with her husband, Mark.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has foundered in recent weeks, is not a favorite of evangelicals, either.

As for the third front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Mrs. Kezan said she is not sure whether his recent conversion to socially conservative stances on abortion and other issues represents a change of heart or political convenience.

Some hold out hope that former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who hasn't formally entered the race yet, will be the candidate to unite the field. But he's not well-known, and questions have been raised about his history on the abortion issue.

Asked whether she supports anybody in the presidential field, Mrs. Kezan laughed and said, "Not yet."

More than 600 people showed up at the Lufkin Civic Center for the recent rally aimed at encouraging Christian conservatives to stay involved in politics.

There were hymns and speakers, including former GOP presidential candidate Alan Keyes and a former Navy chaplain who was demoted for refusing to refrain from sectarian prayers at public events.

East Texas evangelist Rick Scarborough, who organized the event, took the stage and declared that no party has a lock on values voters.

Former Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes spoke at the Lufkin rally, organized by evangelist Rick Scarborough.

"The reason so many people stayed home in 2006 is because they felt like nothing really changed," he said, eliciting a chorus of amens from the crowd.

He said the Republican Party had taken evangelicals for granted and warned that if GOP moderates succeed in emphasizing economic interests over social issues, values voters will flee the party.

"What happened in 2006 is, the base finally realized that the leader of our party and the top of the ticket talked a good game but really didn't believe the issues that motivated us," he said in an interview.

Mr. Scarborough and fellow Christian leaders Richard Land of the Southern Baptists and James Dobson of Focus on the Family insist that abortion and gay marriage must remain staples of the political culture war.

But surveys indicate that younger evangelicals are not as moved by the old "wedge issues" of homosexuality and government-sanctioned prayer.

A group of young, wealthy conservative Christians called Legacy is hosting presidential candidates for off-the-record sessions. Members want to expand the values debate to include the environment, international human rights and the AIDS epidemic.

And polling by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center finds two other issues are also top-line concerns of religious conservatives: terrorism and immigration.

For many at the Lufkin rally, controlling immigration is part of fighting terrorism, and fighting terrorism is connected to their Christian faith.

"If we don't keep with it, something major's going to happen in a year or two," Mr. Kezan said. "They're obviously not going to give up, because there is a general hatred for Christianity, for our values."

The candidate and the issues agenda that would best motivate social conservatives is clearly very much in flux as voters look ahead to 2008.

Analysts suggest one other factor that might be a key to motivating the religious right: the prospect of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

"Once we get close to the actual elections, you're going to find that primaries are driven by values voters," said Mr. Scarborough. "It still is the largest voting bloc out there, and I think they're going to come alive."

Leaders like Mr. Scarborough recognize that their followers are deflated, though, and are working to counter the malaise. Before the Lufkin rally, a couple of dozen East Texas pastors gathered for dinner in a room adjacent to the large hall, where the crowd was gathering.

Mr. Scarborough told them the stakes in the election are huge – with debates on gay marriage, prayer in school, and limits on the public displays of religion, as well as the threat posed by the rise of radical Islam.

He said unless Christian conservatives are motivated, much will be lost. Then he held up a Bible and offered a verse of his own from what he called the "RSV – the Rick Scarborough Version."

"He who hath the most votes," he said, "wins."

A snapshot of evangelical Christians, according to 2004 research:

• They make up 23 percent of the U.S. population.
• They are spread throughout the country but make up a higher percentage of the population in the South.
• They live disproportionately in small towns and rural areas.
• They have college degrees and advanced degrees at roughly the same rate as the U.S. population.
• They are older than the U.S. population on average.
• About three-quarters are white, 15 percent black, and few are Hispanic.

What they believe:
• Two-thirds say the Bible is the literal word of God.
• 84 percent believe faith in Jesus Christ is the only way to salvation, a much higher rate than other Christians.
• They try to incorporate religion into most aspects of their lives.
• They are strongly committed to spreading their faith and view community involvement as key to doing so.

In Texas:
In the last presidential election, 34 percent of registered voters in Texas identified themselves as evangelical or born-again Protestants.

SOURCES: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research; exit polls by consortium of news organizations; surveys by the Annenberg Public Policy Center

A recent nationwide poll of voters found:

35% of Republicans describe themselves as part of the "religious right." (18% of Democrats do.)

49% of Republicans say they are "born again." (35% of Democrats say they are.)

44% of Republicans say that they are more likely to support a candidate if he or she is a fundamentalist Christian. (17% say it makes them less likely.)

39% of Democrats say they are less likely to support a fundamentalist Christian candidate. (20% are more supportive.)

SOURCE: Time magazine poll of 1,003 registered voters, conducted May 10-13, with an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Conservative Christians have been the dominant force in American politics for almost three decades. But the movement may be restless over promises unfulfilled, a lack of enthusiasm over Republican presidential candidates and questions about the movement's future. This occasional series will examine several new directions for conservative evangelicals in politics.