Cautious optimism is the key phrase for 2009 in Denton’s business community.

Some business leaders see the potential for growth on the horizon, while others hope to maintain stability until the economy begins to settle or suggest the a recession offers time to develop plans for better opportunities in 2010.

The economic conditions and continued uncertainly along with the inauguration of a new president this month have made many careful about spending, according to Tony Clark, president of Northstar Bank.

The potential bankruptcies of a number of retail operations add another level of unpredictability to the overall economic picture — nationally and locally, according to Bernard Weinstein, director of the University of North Texas Center for Economic Development Research.

“Nobody really knows what’s going on,” Weinstein said. “No one is able to predict where and when the bottom is.”

Despite the hesitancies, Denton still remains among the areas identified as being less likely to suffer significant economic woes, business leaders say.

Clark said Denton likely will see continued challenges this year, though it has experienced significant growth, with more expected. Clark also expects the local economy to move forward, though at a very slow pace.

Linda Ratliff, economic development director for the city of Denton, agreed.

“We’ve been saying for some time that North Texas has not seen the hard economic times that many of the areas around the nation have experienced. I believe that this will continue to be the case,” she said. “Whatever happens in the economy … we will feel it, but we will also see new growth.”

Though a number of business leaders say the city sits in a region largely buffered from the hard-hitting economic woes, some effects are trickling in through higher-than-normal unemployment rates, holds on retail projects and single home construction, falling energy prices, and a drop in exports, Weinstein said.

“I don’t think 2009 is going to be very exciting news,” he said. “The D-FW area is slowly slipping into a recession like other parts of the country.”

Denton’s diverse employment base — with higher education institutions, the state school, the school district and local and county government — is believed to be one major reason the city has not seen the more visible effects of the current recession.

Another reason is the city lies between two major areas of growth — Dallas and Fort Worth from the south and Collin County from the east. As the largest city between Dallas and the Oklahoma state line, Denton is situated to eventually become a medical and retail business hub, based on the types of projects proposed for future development.

Greg Johnson, a commercial broker for Elk River Real Estate, said that while 2009 likely will be a tough year comparatively, the group is “cautiously expanding business.”

“We’ll work a lot harder to get things done,” he said, and project financing could be challenging but not impossible. “We’re very optimistic for 2009.”

The city’s growing medical facilities are often considered a source of stability to some extent, according to Caleb O’Rear, chief executive officer with Denton Regional Medical Center.

“People will still get sick and they need health care,” he said. “They put off some things from a health care standpoint.”

O’Rear said he expected to see a slowdown in elective surgeries in 2009. However, the hospital plans to expand cardiovascular care and upgrade its emergency department.

“I’m pretty optimistic about 2009 for Denton and the medical community,” he said.

Stan Morton, chief executive officer for Presbyterian Hospital of Denton, also is optimistic about the prospects for growth with the addition of acute care, new facilities and medical infrastructure.

The city’s focus on medical development already has drawn new physicians, staff, services and more, he said.

Morton described Denton’s market as still growing, though likely to be tempered this year.

For small business owners, the current economy already has trimmed budgets as consumers curb spending.

“It’s hard for small retail,” said Bill Thomas, owner of Thomas’ Ethan Allen in Denton’s downtown Square. “If we can get people back to work, then I think it will help everyone out.”

Ken Willis, owner of Ruby’s Diner on the Square, added that paying off outstanding debt would be another major issue for small business owners this year.

“I imagine it’s going to hit us a little more than what it has so far,” Willis said of the slumping economy. “We’ve been protected so far. Anybody in business is either going to have to change and adapt or suffer from it.”

Staff writer Dawn Cobb contributed to this report.

LORI FORGAY can be reached at 940-566-6845. Her e-mail address is lforgay@dentonrc.com.

CANDACE CARLISLE can be reached at 940-566-6889. Her e-mail address is ccarlisle@dentonrc.com.

KARINA RAMÍREZ can be reached at 940-566-6878. Her e-mail address is kramirez@dentonrc.com.