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Report: County’s growth slows
Numerous cities add few if any new residents in ’07
07:05 AM CDT on Friday, June 27, 2008
Denton County added more than 14,000 residents in 2007, but many cities showed little or no growth over the year, according to population estimates released Thursday.
In Denton — which in census estimates last year ranked as the ninth-fastest-growing large U.S. city — growth was sluggish. The city added 500 people after growing by nearly 3,000 in 2006.
“That’s kind of a surprise,” Mayor Mark Burroughs said of Denton’s anemic growth rate. “That’s not the impression that one gets” from the level of traffic and construction in the city.
The North Central Texas Council of Governments released the data as part of its yearly population report. The 2008 report — based largely on housing market indicators — shows growth continued in North Texas last year but at a slightly slower pace than in 2006.
Duane Dankesreiter, research manager for the council of governments, said the report reflects a slowdown in the housing market. Builders constructed fewer homes last year while vacancy rates rose, he said.
“I would suspect that next year everything is going to catch up,” Dankesreiter said. “The builders have done a great job of absorbing [occupying] the market so we don’t have a lot of empty homes.”
The report estimates population changes from Jan. 1, 2007, to Jan. 1, 2008, in a 16-county region.
Copper Canyon was one of several Denton County cities that reported no growth in the past year. Town Administrator Quentin Hix said the housing market has been so flat the town will likely bring in only 75 percent of its projected revenue for building permits.
“Many of those [permits] are for remodels and add-ons,” Hix said.
That kind of building doesn’t usually bring new families to the community, he said. But he was hopeful that the town’s newest subdivision would bring growth next year.
“The first two lots in that subdivision just sold in the last week,” Hix said.
Denton, Carrollton, Flower Mound and Trophy Club all saw growth at rates of less than 1 percent. The highest rates belonged to smaller cities, where modest population increases can dramatically boost the percent change from year to year.
Shady Shores saw an estimated increase of 200 residents, about a 9 percent increase in its population — from 2,200 to 2,400.
While the first 40 acres of the Adkisson Ranch subdivision are under construction, Mayor Olive Stephens said that project wasn’t far enough along to create the uptick in the town’s population.
Instead, she attributed the growth to new construction in other subdivisions around town.
“We started out a subdivision at a time,” Stephens said. “Some built out, but some were left with a few lots.”
People moving to Shady Shores find those acre and half-acre lots in established neighborhoods very attractive, Stephens said.
Neighboring Lake Cities of Corinth and Lake Dallas also grew by about 200 people, but since they are larger cities their rate of growth was much lower — about 1 percent for Corinth and 2 percent for Lake Dallas. Hickory Creek grew by just 50 residents.
Overall, Denton County’s population rose to 614,650 — up 2.3 percent for the year. The growth rate the year before was nearly 3 percent.
County Judge Mary Horn called the change in growth rate minor.
“Denton County and the region has grown every year since I’ve been with Denton County, and that was in 1993,” said Horn, who served as tax assessor/collector before being elected county judge in 2002. “There’s going to be some fluctuation in there from time to time, but I still believe we’re going to continue to grow.”
The council of governments, a regional planning organization, normally releases its population estimates in March. But it delayed this year’s report because of discrepancies with U.S. Census Bureau data.
Numbers from the census bureau and council of governments typically vary because the organizations use different methodology and estimate population at different times of the year. But discrepancies were greater than usual this year, prompting the council of governments to delay its report, officials said.
Since then, the council of governments performed more research to make sure its data accounted for the effects of a slowing economy, Dankesreiter said. Researchers tweaked the numbers, but most of the data didn’t change significantly, he said.
LOWELL BROWN can be reached at 940-566-6882. His e-mail address is lmbrown@dentonrc.com .
PEGGY HEINKEL-WOLFE can be reached at 940-566-6881. Her e-mail address is pheinkel-wolfe@dentonrc.com .
Here are the estimated populations for cities in Denton County on Jan. 1 2007, and Jan. 1, 2008.
| City | 2007 | 2008 | Growth rate |
| Argyle | 3,100 | 3,250 | 4.84% |
| Aubrey | 2,350 | 2,500 | 6.38% |
| Bartonville | 1,350 | 1,350 | 0% |
| Carrollton | 120,150 | 120,550 | 0.33% |
| Copper Canyon | 1,350 | 1,350 | 0% |
| Corinth | 19,450 | 19,650 | 1.03% |
| Denton | 105,550 | 106,050 | 0.47% |
| Double Oak | 2,500 | 2,550 | 2% |
| Flower Mound | 62,350 | 62,450 | 0.16% |
| Hickory Creek | 3,700 | 3,750 | 1.35% |
| Highland Village | 14,650 | 15,100 | 3.07% |
| Justin | 3,050 | 3,100 | 1.64% |
| Krum | 3,550 | 3,800 | 7.04% |
| Lake Dallas | 6,850 | 7,000 | 2.19% |
| Lewisville | 91,550 | 92,850 | 1.42% |
| Little Elm | 21,800 | 22,650 | 3.9% |
| Northlake | 1,450 | 1,450 | 0% |
| Oak Point | 2,450 | 2,500 | 2.04% |
| Pilot Point | 3,950 | 4,000 | 1.27% |
| Roanoke | 5,700 | 6,150 | 7.89% |
| Sanger | 6,700 | 6,700 | 0% |
| Shady Shores | 2,200 | 2,400 | 9.09% |
| The Colony | 39,300 | 39,850 | 1.4% |
| Trophy Club | 7,450 | 7,500 | 0.67% |
| County (other) | 54,300 | 56,800 | 4.6% |
| Split cities* | 13,800 | 19,350 | 40.22% |
| County (total) | 600,600 | 614,650 | 2.34% |
*Represents corporate boundaries that extend into another county
SOURCE: North Central Texas Council of Governments
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