WASHINGTON – Sarah Palin showed again Friday that she's one of America's most unconventional politicians, traveling an unpredictable path to an uncertain future.

That the Alaska governor has a flair for the theatrical – and plays by her own rules – was underscored anew by her stunning announcement that not only will she not seek re-election in 2010 but also that she will resign her office this month.

But are Palin's rules those of someone with the capacity to seek and win her party's presidential nomination in 2012, as many believe is her goal?

That question was at the center of discussion Friday among Republican strategists who were baffled by the news from Alaska.

Palin's statement was ambiguous about her future.

"I look forward to helping others – to fight for our state and our country, and campaign for those who believe in smaller government, free enterprise, strong national security, support for our troops and energy independence," she said, hinting at larger ambitions.

But she also expressed weariness over what she called a "superficial, wasteful, political blood sport."

Was that a hint that she intends to turn away from elective politics?

Certainly, after a week of new attacks over her performance in the 2008 campaign, slipping into the background might be a welcome tonic for Palin and her family.

But even if that were her first instinct, she will feel the tug of her passionate supporters to remain in the forefront of the debate over the GOP's future, and many of them will push her to run for president.

"If this is about running for president, it's about as odd a way as we've ever seen," said John Weaver, a Republican strategist.

That reasoning followed conventional assumptions about what it takes to mount a national campaign – that, in surrendering the governor's office in Alaska, she ends her brief tenure in statewide office, leaving behind a thin record for a national campaign.

Yet it has been obvious that Alaska is a difficult place from which to participate in a national debate, both because of its distance from the rest of the United States but also because of its culture and identity.

Freed of the constraints of her office, Palin could become a more engaged participant in the national debate.

"My contrarian take is, almost everyone I talk to thinks it's crazy, but I wonder maybe it's crazy like a fox," said Bill Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard.

Kristol's view is that spending another 18 months in office in Alaska will not convince skeptics that she is ready to be president.

Instead, he said, she can use the time to travel the country and the world, to immerse herself in policy issues and campaign for Republican candidates, without facing questions about whether she is shirking her responsibilities.

"It's a heck of a gamble, but it might pay off," Kristol said.

Dan Balz,

The Washington Post