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2 years after fleeing to Ardmore, they have a plan but lack big names
09:13 PM CDT on Wednesday, May 11, 2005
AUSTIN – Two years after 51 Democrats fled the state in a blaze of
national publicity, the vestiges of that runaway army are on the House
floor these days fighting the Republican majority.
Mostly, they're losing. If, as many Democrats see it, the flight to
Ardmore, Okla., to thwart a GOP redistricting plan reflected a bright
footnote in Democratic history, the party's role two years later as the
loyal, if ineffective, opposition underscores its weakness statewide.
"We're at a low ebb," said Garry Mauro, the party's 1998 gubernatorial
nominee against incumbent George W. Bush.
Democrats haven't elected a candidate statewide in Texas since 1994.
They hold no statewide offices, and last year – thanks to the ultimate
success of that redistricting push – they lost their last piece of
power, a majority of the state's U.S. House seats. But on the
anniversary of the quixotic flight to Ardmore, party leaders see a
flicker of hope as they launch a plan to rebuild the party.
For the first time in 32 years, Democrats increased their numbers in the
Texas House last year – by one seat. And the party has a blueprint for
beginning to retake power by the end of the decade, strategists say: tap
any public dissatisfaction with the party in power; highlight ethics
problems around House Speaker Tom Craddick and U.S. House Majority
Leader Tom DeLay; and keep the growing number of Hispanic voters in the
Democratic fold.
And they also believe they'll benefit from the simple fact that soon,
for the first time in two decades, Republicans won't have a George Bush
in high office to help them win votes.
"We've clearly shown that we've bottomed out and we're on the way back,"
said Texas Democratic Party chairman Charles Soechting.
Democrats agree the first task is to field an aggressive group of
legislative candidates in 2006, with a goal of winning at least five
additional seats in the Texas House, where the GOP holds an 87-63
advantage. By 2010, the party will target select statewide offices in
hopes of winning back the governorship, taking a U.S. Senate seat, the
attorney general's office and a governing majority in the Texas House.
Such success would allow Democrats to control the next round of
congressional redistricting and to redraw the GOP-friendly boundaries
that lawmakers passed last year at the behest of Mr. DeLay.
Republicans say the plan is more pipedream than political strategy.
"They're pretty much gone for the rest of the decade," said GOP
strategist Royal Masset.
"Their big problem is not having a base of talent," he said.
Gone are the national stars that once led the state party: Gov. Ann
Richards, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros. The last
Democrat to be House speaker, Rep. Pete Laney of Hale Center, agrees
that it will take a long time for such talent to be replaced.
"What the Democratic Party has to do is develop a farm team at the
college level and the high school level," Mr. Laney said.
But for now, the battles Democrats fight are often futile. Last week,
House Democrats were mostly united against a bill requiring voters to
present a photo ID when they cast a ballot.
Critics said the bill would discriminate against minorities, an
important voting constituency for Democrats. The measure passed the
House, 83-63, on a party-line vote.
"Some days it's horrible. Some days you don't want to get up and come
over here," said Houston Rep. Garnett Coleman, who had helped lead the
opposition. "But you know, public service is not for just when you win."
For the Democratic Party, the losses have proved costly.
Its most recent filing with the Texas Ethics Commission shows it has
just $6,300 on hand. The Republican Party, by contrast, had $139,000.
Republican consultants say the Democratic Party's demise in Texas and
across the South is the result of policy positions unpopular with many
Texans, who tend to be more conservative.
Richard Murray, a political science professor at the University of
Houston, said Democrats can still win statewide, but they need a break–
perhaps an open Senate seat and a bloody GOP primary for governor. He
noted that in 1978, a damaging Democratic primary fight helped Bill
Clements become the state's first Republican governor since
Reconstruction.
"After about 10 years of bad luck and self-inflicted wounds, the
Democratic Party needs to get lucky," he said.
More than that, said Mr. Mauro, the Democrats' old formula of carrying
rural areas overwhelmingly and cutting losses in suburban areas no
longer applies. Instead, Democrats need to carry South Texas and build
up margins in cities to offset losses in rural areas and the suburbs.
"In 2008, the demographics are going to really start working for us," he
said. "And the cumulative effect of Republicans not delivering on their
promises are going to put Republicans in bad shape."
Republicans caution against Democratic expectations of winning big once
the state's burgeoning population of Hispanics starts voting in bigger
numbers.
Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, said many Hispanics are attracted to the
GOP's economic and socially conservative agenda.
"The future of Texas politics in the next 20 years is going to come down
to who wins the Hispanic community – not only convinces them but
organizes them and registers them and gets them to actually vote," he
said. "That's the great issue."
Next week, Democrats will commemorate their week in Ardmore with a
fundraiser featuring singer Ray Benson of Asleep at the Wheel. Kirk
Watson, the party's 2002 losing attorney general nominee and a potential
future candidate, will be the host.
Meanwhile, Mr. Coleman said, he and his colleagues on the House floor
will continue battling the Republican majority.
"History is on our side," he said.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com
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