In pursuit of finance change, governor facing historically tough odds

07:09 AM CDT on Friday, July 22, 2005

By CHRISTY HOPPE / The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN – In this high-stakes game of Texas Hold 'Em, Gov. Rick Perry might not have a very good hand, but he's all in.

Having just called his sixth special session in two years, and threatening more, the governor is betting the political pot on producing a school finance overhaul – even if it's only a modest change, Capitol consultants and experts said.

"I think there is so much time, substance and dialogue invested that I don't think you can just go home," said GOP adviser Bill Miller. "The bug has taken hold. There's no way to get well without passing something."

Indeed, Mr. Perry's office is sounding that theme, warning lawmakers that they will be in the Capitol until an education plan is passed: "If they want to celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa or Festivus in Austin, that's fine with the governor because they are going to stay here until they get this done," said spokesman Robert Black.

Most consultants said Mr. Perry has the most to lose if the Legislature fails on school finance. He has proclaimed it his priority, and he is the leader of the Republican Party that controls all levels of state government.

At the same time, Mr. Perry could not have picked a tougher issue. School finance has vexed past governors, including Bill Clements, Ann Richards and even George W. Bush, who had to settle for a sliver of the ambitious multibillion tax plan he had championed.

But, Mr. Bush also parlayed that pale victory – an increase in the homestead exemption from $5,000 to $15,000 – into a tax cut campaign theme that he carried nationwide.

"I think it's a very high-stakes game for the governor, much more so than for the other 180 people involved," said public relations specialist Chuck McDonald, who served in the Richards administration.

He recalled that the special sessions Ms. Richards devoted to school finance were grueling, and voters ultimately rejected the legislative solution.

"School finance overhauls create many more enemies than friends," Mr. McDonald said.

In the current situation, he pointed out that the state's own studies show that lowering property taxes, and raising sales taxes to offset the reduction, would mean that almost 90 percent of Texans would end up paying more. Voters will notice, he said.

And because there is relatively little new money for schools, the education groups have been unanimously opposed to the legislative proposals. Mr. McDonald said educators are a strong, ready-made constituency in every legislative district.

In fact, a new organization already has formed, "No Texas Teacher Left Behind," that is urging the state's 330,000 teachers to unite and vote against Mr. Perry.

Mr. Perry also faces a tough sell to legislators, who have shown a great reluctance to pass the tax-swap bills.

"I see no appetite to help the governor in his re-election campaign," said Democratic consultant Kelly Fero. "The 181 members of the Legislature also have re-election campaigns, and none of them are interested in passing a tax bill."

Mr. McDonald added that Mr. Perry has made school finance his mountain to conquer but that he sees no overwhelming public outcry to tackle this problem. "This is a self-induced crisis," he said.

Not so, said Republican consultant Ray Sullivan, who worked for Mr. Bush and Mr. Perry.

"I certainly think that education is the top priority of state government and most Texans want to see additional funding and a better, fairer education system," he said.

"If the Legislature can pump billions more into schools, provide some property tax relief and impose academic rigor and put schools on a firmer financial footing, they will be seen as great successes," Mr. Sullivan said.

He said teacher groups and school administrators will marginalize their own political self-interests if they continue blanket opposition to the school plans.

"It's unfortunate that the education establishment has been increasingly partisan, increasingly opposed to real reform and increasingly dependent on trial lawyers and lawsuits to make their case," he said.

Mr. Sullivan agreed school finance is one of the toughest, most emotional issues facing the Legislature, but he predicted Mr. Perry would prevail with a plan. And like Mr. Bush, he thinks Mr. Perry could make school reforms into a popular campaign theme.

Mr. Bush garnered the accomplishments in regular legislative sessions. In five years as governor, he never called a special session.

That difference has become a political banner being waved by political challenger Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

"A leader does not allow three regular sessions and five special sessions to go by without fixing our public schools. A leader does not intimidate or threaten. Rick Perry is no leader," she said.

Mr. Perry said such broadsides were an insult to the efforts of the Republican-led Legislature and that he would not dignify the criticism with a reply.

But Ms. Strayhorn might have a point, said Allan Saxe, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.

Most people remember the regular session, when lawmakers spent "all that time debating the lewd-cheerleading bill. They look at those frivolous bills and say, 'Why didn't you tend to the big issues?' "

"The public doesn't like special sessions," because they cost $60,000 a day and Texans are skeptical of extra meetings, Dr. Saxe said.

E-mail choppe@dallasnews.com