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Average would be a good starting point for Texas Rangers
02:27 AM CDT on Sunday, March 30, 2008
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A decade ago, the Rangers measured success by whether they won the American League West. We are so over that now.
The division is now officially owned by the Los Angeles Angels. They won it in 2004, 2005 and 2007. They will win it in 2008.
But, hey, it's not all about winning. It's about progress when a team is in a rebuilding stage, which, by the way, is taking longer than it took to rebuild Central Expressway.
After enduring the club's most disastrous off-season ever – signing Chan Ho Park, Juan Gonzalez, Todd Van Poppel, Jay Powell and John Rocker and sacrificing almost the entire top end of the 2002 draft – the rebuilding process began in earnest in 2003.
Sorry, but these things take time.
The good news is that the Rangers will make real progress in 2008, which, in this century, means they will be average.
Texas has reached the .500 mark only once in eight seasons. An 81-81 season will tell us that hope is somewhere around the corner.
Here are seven reasons the Rangers are going to improve enough to be downright average in 2008:
■ Michael Young will hit more than nine home runs.
The team's leader and best player is only 31. His numbers should be improving or at least holding steady. But his home runs have tailed off from 24 to 14 to nine.
He had 69 extra-base hits in both 2005 and 2006. He had 47 last year.
"Last year, I was just mechanically inconsistent," Young said. "It's hard to explain, but there were periods that I just felt different at the plate. Plus we got off to that rough start, and I found myself expanding my zone and swinging at pitches I needed to lay off.
"This year, I'm just going to stay disciplined."
He will be a bigger run producer as a result.
■ The top of the rotation will be better. At least a little bit.
Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla didn't come close to repeating their 2006 seasons last year. Both missed games with injuries. Both pitched while hurt, and they suffered for it.
Millwood and Padilla made 13 fewer starts and won 15 fewer games.
I don't know that both of them get back to 15-game winners. Odds are that at least one of them will. That will help the team and the bullpen.
■ Josh Hamilton is the real deal.
I know that Cactus League statistics are fraudulent, especially hitting stats in Arizona. But his numbers (and the balls he launched in batting practice) were out of sight. And his .554 slugging percentage in Cincinnati last season beat any of the Rangers' regulars.
He's still making the long climb back from a serious drug problem. But Hamilton looks as though he can handle anything right now.
■ Hank Blalock is back.
The third baseman had his best on-base and slugging percentages ever as a Ranger in 2007. That was easy to miss because Blalock missed 104 games because of surgery to remove a rib and correct a circulation problem.
Other than a little soreness, Blalock had no real problems in spring training. Getting his potent bat back into the middle of the order is crucial.
■ Help is on the way this summer.
The top end of the Rangers' farm system hasn't been able to come to the rescue in recent years. This season, players such as power-hitting first baseman Chris Davis, catcher Taylor Teagarden and pitcher Eric Hurley could be called up as injury replacements or simply because they are ready to contribute.
■ The A's have become more like the D's.
For years, Oakland's depth was such that GM Billy Beane could keep churning high-priced players to other teams for prospects and win at the same time. Those days are over.
The A's weren't very good last year, but they should be considerably worse this year after sending outfielders Nick Swisher and Mark Kotsay and starting pitcher Dan Haren to other teams for more prospects.
The A's won't stay down for long. They have too much in their farm system for that to happen. But the Rangers play about 12 percent of their games against a weakened team.
■ The Rangers are in for a better start.
In manager Ron Washington's first year on the job, the Rangers weren't just bad to begin with. They were historically bad. They were 19-35 through the first two months, on pace for 105 defeats.
In the first two months of 2008, the Rangers will play eight games against Oakland, seven against Minnesota (with no Johan Santana) and nine more against Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Kansas City – three teams that lost between 93 and 96 games a year ago.
There's no way the Rangers dig such a deep hole in 2008.
This team is just too darned ... average.
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