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With 90 percent of season left, Tigers have time to rebound

11:14 PM CDT on Saturday, April 19, 2008

And the Rangers thought they had a bad season-opening stretch. Detroit, with the second-highest payroll in baseball, lost its first six games and was in last place in the AL Central with a 5-11 record at the season's 10 percent pole.

The Tigers couldn't score runs. The starting rotation carried the worst ERA in the AL. The two big off-season acquisitions, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, made poor first impressions on Motown. Oh, and the Tigers, didn't score in any of Kenny Rogers' first three starts. This team looks like the biggest Detroit disaster since the Edsel.

Don't count them out yet. As the Rangers prepare for this week's only 2008 visit to Detroit (who said the schedule was bad?), here are five reasons why the Tigers are not endangered playoff contenders.

1. Excitement on the way. Curtis Granderson might be the AL's most exciting player and could be back atop the lineup against the Rangers after three weeks on the DL with a finger fracture. Granderson is the point guard in the Tigers' full-court press lineup. With his 61 doubles and triples and 23 steals of second last year, Granderson put himself in scoring position 84 times. In the AL, only Brian Roberts (87 times) did that more often. It will put more pressure on opposing pitchers to pitch to the beefed up lineup behind Granderson.

2. It's about the pitching. Detroit began the year with issues but most of them revolved around the bullpen and the potential decline of some aging stars. But it's been the starting pitching, a supposed strength, that has been the biggest disappointment. The rotation had an AL-worst 6.14 ERA entering Friday. When pitching gets hot, it is the No. 1 component of long winning streaks. There is reason to believe Justin Verlander (0-3, 7.03 ERA) and Rogers (0-3, 6.75 ERA) will rebound.

3. Getting acclimated. Cabrera went 2-for-20 in the season-opening losing streak. Perhaps it was the adjustment to a new league. Or the pressure to perform after the trade with Florida and a big contract extension. Whatever. He seems to be over it. He went 13-for-36 in the next 10 games. He had two homers and nine RBIs for the week heading into the weekend.

4. Nobody has run away. If a team in the AL Central got out to a red-hot start, it might put more pressure on Detroit, but that's not the case. In fact, you might say the Central standings are potentially inverted. While Chicago has the early lead, defending champ Cleveland (6-10) was in fourth, only a game ahead of Detroit. The teams split a two-game series this week.

5. They are not alone. Three rough weeks don't necessarily scuttle a season. As the chart above indicates, six teams in the last eight seasons reached the playoffs after similar starts to Detroit's. Of course one of them (Philadelphia last year) required one of the greatest collapses in history (by the New York Mets) to reach the playoffs. Bottom line: The kind of comeback the Tigers need is not unheard of.

Plenty of time to play catchup

The Tigers are off to a slow start, but recent history shows they have time to get back into the playoff race.
Year Team W-L after 16 GB Finish
2000 San Francisco 5-11 6 ½ NL West champs
2001 Oakland 5-11 7 AL wild card
2002 Anaheim 6-10 6 ½ AL wild card, world champs
2007 Colorado 7-9 4 NL wild card; NL champs
2007 Cubs 6-10 3 ½ NL Central champs
2007 Philadelphia 5-11 6 NL East champs
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