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Seeds of doubt aside, Dallas Mavericks have reasons to believe
09:23 PM CDT on Friday, April 18, 2008
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The best player on the floor will be the Hornets' point guard and the Mavs don't have home-court advantage this year, but consider 20 reasons Dallas is better off against the No. 2 seed in the West than playing straight man for Golden State:
• Even if Avery Johnson prefers being a favorite, his players don't. You need a strain of arrogance to play the part lest doubt creeps in.
Michael Jordan had that kind of arrogance. Larry Bird had it. Kobe Bryant has it.
Dirk Nowitzki doesn't.
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• The Mavs know they can beat the Hornets. Deep down, they weren't so sure about the Warriors. Golden State had won seven of its last eight regular-season games. Winning the season finale over the Hornets by 13 – with Jason Kidd's first triple-double as a Maverick – boosts confidence.
• The Hornets are 0-for-6 in best-of-7 series. David Moore tells us playoff experience is overrated, and he's right. Before pulling off last year's huge upset, Golden State hadn't been invited to the playoffs in 12 seasons. Here's the deal: When you're ahead, experience isn't an issue. When you're behind late, it helps to know you've done it.
• Don Nelson will not coach the Hornets.
• If Nowitzki isn't Ubermensch in the first round, it's still OK. Dirk's worst games came against New Orleans. He was 4-of-16 from the field Wednesday for 12 points, and 2-of-8 on Dec. 14 for a season-low seven points. And the Mavs won both games comfortably. Go figure.
• The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since Khalid Reeves ran the point for the Mavs.
• Kidd isn't as ancient as he looked Feb. 20. In his first game against the Hornets, he had more turnovers than assists and played point guard like Willie Mays handled center field for the Mets. Since Johnson has allowed him to post up on defenders, Kidd's confidence has returned. He probably won't hit five of eight 3-pointers as he did Wednesday – he may never make that many again – but for the first time as a Maverick, he didn't look afraid to try.
• Stephen Jackson will not torment Nowitzki. Or taunt the Mavs' bench.
• Despite two ugly losses in the great Northwest, the Mavs are peaking at the right time: 4-1 in their last five games against winning teams.
• Defense no longer drains the life from Dallas. Johnson preaches a relentless commitment that's difficult when it's not your nature. Out of necessity, he eased off. Good defense means making stops when necessary. Example: Double-teaming Hornets point guard Chris Paul in the backcourt during the Mavs' 30-6 run Wednesday.
• A seven-game series tests depth, and the Hornets' starters showed signs of wear late. Dallas' bench outscored New Orleans', 167-87, during the regular season series.
• The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since Vlade Divac was a Hornet.
• Byron Scott coached Jason Kidd, but he's never coached the Mavs.
• Jason Terry averaged more points against the Hornets this season than against any team but Milwaukee. The Mavs beat the Hornets on Dec. 14 and Wednesday because Terry scored 25 and 30 points when Nowitzki managed only seven and 12, respectively. Terry is averaging 21.6 points over his last five games, proof he's building chemistry with Kidd.
• Instead of figuring out how to plague the Mavs, Baron Davis wonders why Nellie forgot him.
• Brandon Bass wants to make Scott regretful. Bass had his best game against his old team on Wednesday, with 13 points and 12 rebounds. If Bass keeps it up, the Mavs could neutralize the Hornets' athletic frontcourt.
• Johnson won't bench Erick Dampier in the first round again. No one has benefited more from Kidd's presence than Dampier, who must overpower Tyson Chandler.
• For the first time in weeks, Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse are all reasonably healthy.
• If it means anything, the Mavs are the national experts' trendy upset choice.
• Tim MacMahon picks the Hornets in 7. If that doesn't convince you otherwise, nothing will.
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