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Mike Heika's NHL preview
10:18 AM CDT on Friday, September 28, 2007
The salary cap is both a wonderful and a hideous thing in the NHL.
It has improved competition, brought hope to many a desolate hockey burg and created playoff races that are darn near impossible to pick. It also has brought down the level of play for the great teams.
No longer can you look at a team and marvel at the collection of talent on the power play. No longer can rich teams simply fill every hole through free agency.
Last summer's free-agent auction involved fewer key players but more teams willing to bid. Low supply and high demand forced some teams to make commitments that could define their rosters for the next five years and limit opportunities to sign free agents.
The Stars sought scoring help but elected not to clear salary-cap space or commit to long-term, high-dollar contracts.
"If this was five years ago, we would have added a player or two over the summer for sure," Stars center Mike Modano said of the team's inability to sign targeted free-agent forwards Paul Kariya, Jason Blake and Slava Kozlov. "But with the salary cap, you just have to find different ways to make things work."
The top has slipped, the bottom has pushed up, and now you have a lot of teams in the middle. That could make for some interesting hockey – and certainly will make for an unpredictable run for the Stanley Cup.
Will Anaheim's Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne really retire? And can the Ducks win without them? Is Ottawa's management shift, with Bryan Murray promoted to general manager and replaced as coach by John Paddock, going to push the Senators to the next level? Can Buffalo recover from losing Daniel Briere and Chris Drury in free agency? Are the Penguins ready to take the next step with the best young talent?
The first step for the Stars is getting through the Pacific Division, so let's look most closely at them and whom they must defeat:
50-25-7, 107 points
GFA: 2.65 (21st)
GAA: 2.31 (3rd)
Key losses: D Darryl Sydor, LW Ladislav Nagy, C Eric Lindros, D Jon Klemm.
Key additions: LW Brad Winchester, LW Todd Fedoruk.
Biggest issue: Can they score more with virtually the same lineup?
Biggest advantage: With a healthy lineup, maybe so. They lost 296 man-games to injury last season, fifth most in the league. With a healthy Mike Moano, they were 39-15-5.
48-20-14, 110 points
GFA: 3.10 (8th) GAA: 2.37 (6th)
Key losses: D Scott Niedermayer, RW Teemu Selanne, LW Dustin Penner
Key additions: RW Todd Bertuzzi, D Mathieu Schneider
Biggest issue: Can the Ducks overcome the loss of Niedermayer and deal with Stanley Cup hangover at the same time?
Biggest advantage: There's a chance that Niedermayer returns in January or February and leads this team to another Stanley Cup.
51-26-5, 107 points
GFA: 3.12 (6th) GAA: 2.86 (7th)
Key losses: D Scott Hannan, G Vesa Toskala, LW Mark Bell, RW Bill Guerin
Key addition: C Jeremy Roenick
Biggest issue: The Sharks have some wonderful forwards (Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo, Patrick Marleau, Milan Michalek), but they're thin on defense and inexperienced at backup goalie.
Biggest advantage: This team has less than $40 million committed to payroll and can swing a huge trade at any point.
27-41-14, 68 points
GFA: 2.72 (20th) GAA: 3.33 (27th)
Key loss: D Aaron Miller
Key additions: C Michal Handzus, LW Ladislav Nagy, D Brad Stuart, D Tom Preissing
Biggest issue: This team ran out a horrible group of goalies last season and never came close to competing. This season, Jason LaBarbera is expected to get the chance to be the man.
Biggest advantage: Adding Stuart and Preissing on defense should give the goalies a much better chance to survive.
31-46-5, 67 points
GFA: 2.57 (24th) GAA: 3.40 (28th)
Key losses: G Curtis Joseph, RW Owen Nolan, C Jeremy Roenick
Key addition: LW Mike York
Biggest issue: The Coyotes have bailed on trying to win now and must be patient with a team stocked with young players. Can coach Wayne Gretzky develop the kids?
Biggest advantage: Captain Shane Doan is one of the best all-around players and an impressive leader. He should drag younger players into battle.
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(Division winners seeded 1-3)
1. Detroit
2. Dallas
3. Minnesota
4. Anaheim
5. Vancouver
6. San Jose
7. Colorado
8. Calgary
1. Ottawa
2. Pittsburgh
3. Atlanta
4. NY Rangers
5. New Jersey
6. Buffalo
7. Montreal
8. Carolina
West: 8. Calgary defeats 1. Detroit; 2. Dallas defeats 7. Colorado; 6. San Jose defeats 3. Minnesota; 4. Anaheim defeats 5. Vancouver
East: 8. Carolina defeats 1. Ottawa; 2. Pittsburgh defeats 7. Montreal; 6. Buffalo defeats 3. Atlanta; 4. NY Rangers defeats 5. New Jersey
West: 2. Dallas defeats 8. Calgary; 4. Anaheim defeats 6. San Jose
East: 2. Pittsburgh defeats 8. Carolina; 4. NY Rangers defeats 6. Buffalo
West: 4. Anaheim defeats 2. Dallas
East: 4. NY Rangers defeats 2. Pittsburgh
Anaheim defeats NY Rangers
Hart Trophy (MVP): Dany Heatley, Ottawa
Norris Trophy (Top defenseman): Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit
Vezina Trophy (Top goalie): Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota
Calder Trophy (Top rookie): Nicklas Backstrom, Washington
Adams Award (Top coach): Jacques Lemaire, Minnesota
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